Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Odds
| Atletico Madrid Odds | +187 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100/ -125 |
One of the best rivalries in Spain takes place on Sunday as Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the Madrid Derby.
Atletico is off to a good but not great start in La Liga with two wins, a draw and a loss. Diego Simeone has been at Atletico for a long time, and late in the season last year he switched up their tactics, making them a more offensive team. However, they have not played their inner-city rivals since they changed tactics, so we will see how they fare on Sunday.
Real Madrid is coming off a 1-0 win over Union Berlin in the Champions League and yet another Jude Bellingham stoppage time goal. Los Blancos are the only team in Spain that is perfect through four matches, as they look to dethrone Barcelona at the top of the table. Three points in a rivalry match will be key in the race for the title.
Atletico Madrid
Simeone used to be a traditionalist, utilizing a passive 4-4-2 low block and was consistently one of the best defensive sides in all of Europe. But then toward the middle of last season, things got stale and Atletico were struggling. So, Simeone switched Atletico into a 5-3-2, which ended up doing wonders to not only give them more tactical flexibility but also allowed them to win 11 of their final 15 matches and finish third in the table.
The 5-3-2 allows them to do two things offensively. The first one is to create overloads in wide areas. This allows Atletico to either send in a cross or enter the box via the wide area for a cutback shot. It also pulls the opposing defensive block out wide, which creates a ton of space at the back of the post for crosses.
The second thing they like to do is use counter-movements, which is when an attacker makes an opposite movement from the ball, dragging a defender with him to free up space for an attacker to occupy the free space and eventually create a chance.
Alvaro Morata is one of the most intelligent tactically minded strikers on the planet. He gets a lot of flack for his poor finishing, but he is elite at doing this and is another reason why Antoine Greizmann has flourished in this new system.
When Atletico is out of possession, they have been much more aggressive pressing and trying to disrupt build-up play in their own final third. Once they win the ball, they try to get forward in a hurry to counterattack the opposing defense when they are out of position.
Switching the formation has not only done wonders in terms of results, but Atletico is averaging 2.14 xG per 90 minutes in the new system, which is most in La Liga during that time frame.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid won their opening four matches, but they are showing some flaws. The match against Almeria was a big alarm bell for Los Blancos because Almeria exploited the space out wide time and time again. Having Bellingham, Tchouaméni and Modric as a midfield is world-class, but they all like to stay very compact, which allows teams that are good enough to get at them in wide areas.
Almeria did this routinely, completing a whopping eight crosses into Real Madrid’s penalty area. With the new tactical switch from Simeone to try and overload wide areas, Atletico Madrid can do the exact same thing to them.
There is potential big news for Real Madrid in this match. Their best attacking player, Vinicius Júnior, is set to return from injury.
⚪️ Carlo Ancelotti: “Vinicius has 100% recovered”.
“For me it’s difficult to leave players on the bench, the competition is very high in the midfield. You can't be sad if you've given your 100%”. pic.twitter.com/WiItLqXF2y
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) September 23, 2023
Last season, Vinicius Júnior wasn't Real Madrid's top shot-getter by any stretch of the imagination. But his ability to take defenders one on one when Madrid overloads the center of the pitch and create chances for all of their attacking players is world class. He's basically the best player in the world at progressively carrying the ball and taking defender one on one.
With Real Madrid not having an elite striker at the moment, he is incredibly key to their attack.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Pick & Prediction
This match sets up pretty well for both offenses to flourish. Atletico's switch to a 5-3-2 allows them to overload wide areas and have their fullbacks aggressively get forward as much as possible. As Almeria showed this season, attacking in wide areas is how you beat Real Madrid, and Atletico can do that at an elite level, averaging more than two expected goals per 90 minutes since the switch in formation.
The addition of Vinicius Júnior to the Real Madrid attack is massive for them in this match. Even though Atletico has switched their formation, the Simeone principles remain the same out of possession, which is to stay compact and keep teams out of the middle of the pitch. So, having one of the best wingers in the world at your disposal is big to break down a low block.
I have 3.11 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Over 2.5 goals at -104 (FanDuel).
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