In the 237th edition of the Madrid Derby, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid battle at the Metropolitano Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Los Blancos have gotten off to a better start in La Liga so far, sitting in second with 17 points on five wins.
Meanwhile, Los Colchoneros are still unbeaten through seven matches and trail their rivals by only two points.
This is a matchup of star players and legendary coaches in a massive derby, and it should be a great match from the Spanish capital.
Here is my Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid prediction.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Atletico Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -220 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +170 | 2.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid moneyline odds: Atletico Madrid +170, Real Madrid +170, Draw +230
- Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid over/under: 2.5 goals (over -110, under -110)
- Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid pick: Draw
I am backing the draw in Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid Preview
In case you missed it over the summer, there are not many clubs that splashed the cash more than Atlético did, and it should give Diego Simeone plenty of new attackers.
The largest name of the group is Julián Alvarez, who moved over from Manchester City. The Argentine striker is joined in attack by Alexander Sørloth from Villarreal.
The signings didn’t end there for Simeone as Conor Gallagher (Chelsea) and Robin Le Normand (Real Sociedad) also joined the squad.
Simeone is still tinkering with his lineup early in the season to find his strongest starting 11, but I trust the veteran manager to get the most out of his team.
Real Madrid Preview
Even with all of the signings by Atlético, no bigger name came to La Liga than French superstar Kylian Mbappé. However, he will not feature in this derby.
After scoring in his fourth straight match, Mbappé was subbed off in the 80th minute against Alavés due to a hamstring issue. It has been announced that the injury will keep him out for three weeks.
Fortunately for Carlo Ancelotti, he should still have plenty of firepower to get a result here. He likely will revert to the formation from last season, with Jude Bellingham playing behind Vinícius Junior and Rodrygo.
The big question will be who Ancelotti plays in midfield with Eduardo Camavinga pushing to return from injury. His other option is Luka Modrić who has plenty of experience in big games.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
When these two have met in recent seasons, one trend seems to stick out above the rest. I can’t ignore it here, especially with how great the price is from a betting perspective.
So, my best bet is for the Madrid Derby to end in a draw at +240. I would play this down to +220.
Simeone has been at Atlético since 2011, and Ancelotti returned to Madrid in 2021. Over this period, these two clubs have played each other nine times in all competitions.
In those matches, the game ended in a draw after 90 minutes on seven occasions, which includes the last seven derbies.
You also only have to look at how the oddsmakers priced this game to know how closely they think these teams are. The spread is a straight pick, and both teams to score is at -175.
It feels like a game that finishes 1-1, but I’m happy with any scoreline that ends this match in a tie.
