Australia vs. Denmark Odds
| Australia Odds | +650 |
| Denmark Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+100 / -134) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Australia and Denmark meet in Group C with everything on the line in the final round of the group stage.
The Aussies got their third win at a World Cup last week, beating Tunisia 1-0. They are now in a very simple position. Win and they're through, draw and they are also most likely through as well barring a Tunisia win over France.
Denmark have been very underwhelming in this World Cup after making it to the semifinals of the Euros. They drew Tunisia in their first match and then got their doors blown off by France. So, the Danes are in the same position that the Americans were in. They need to win to get to the round of 16 or else they're going home.
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Australia Remain an Exploitable Side
Australia got pummeled by France, who scored four goals off of exactly 4 expected goals (xG).
They then allowed close to 1 xG to Tunisia in the second match, but throughout World Cup Qualifying Australia conceded just 12 goals off of 21.7 xG. The Aussies are one of the least talented teams in the field and they are a team that needs to have possession to be successful, as they like to play a slow, intricate style. They have not played a team that is going to press them like Denmark is going to.
With Australia only needing a draw to get to the round of 16, you are going to see them play extremely defensively and most likely park the bus for a majority of this match. The Aussie center backs, along with Aaron Mooy, are very capable of playing long balls up the pitch, so if you’re facing Australia, you better be ready to win some aerial duals.
Outside of that, Australia are very reliant on Aaron Mooy to dictate the tempo of the match and to progress the ball into the final third.
Out of possession, Australia drop back into a 4-4-2, with two low blocks. The two front strikers will often press the opposing center back individually, but the reality is Australia doesn’t really press their opponents as a team high up the pitch.
Denmark Looking to Avoid Disaster
Denmark just aren't the side that we saw go to the Euro semis. This team has a ton of talent, has been playing together for a long time, and are well drilled in what they want to do tactically, but it just didn't show against France. However, they really should have beaten Tunisia in their first match.
Denmark 0-0 Tunisia: We only saw one 0-0 draw at the 2018 World Cup (also in a game involving Denmark) – we've matched that tally six games into the 2022 tournament.#FIFAWorldCup | #Qatar2022pic.twitter.com/Qi54QDpwrt
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) November 22, 2022
I'm sure a lot of people will be put off by Denmark's performance against France, but I have news for you – Australia are not France. For the better part of two years the Danes have absolutely been dominating weaker competition:
As you can see that is a +14.62 xGD in 10 matches, so the Danes are absolutely capable of creating high quality chances, it will just come down to finishing.
In possession, Denmark typically like to create numerical overloads in the center of the pitch to force the opponent to play more compact, which allows Joakim Maele and Rasmus Kristensen to get forward in the attack and supply a lot of crosses into the box. So, Denmark are actually set up very well to break down a low block, which they have shown the ability to do over the past two years.
Australia vs. Denmark Pick
The match is going to come down to if Denmark finish off their chances. Australia are going to park the bus in front of the net and dare Denmark to beat them with crosses into the box.
I have the Danes projected at -270, so I love the value on them at -200 and I would rather take the moneyline than spread because they only need one goal to get through to the knockout stage.
The Pick: Denmark -200
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