Austria vs Turkey Odds, Austria – Turkey Picks
| Austria Odds | -106 |
| Turkey Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110o / -110u |
Let's dive into the Austria vs Turkey odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Tuesday, July 2.
Austria and Turkey will meet for an exciting match to close out the round of 16.
Austria surprised everyone and won Group D, which was considered one of the hardest groups in this tournament. Ralf Rangnick has his team playing his system perfectly, and it now has a really good path to get to the semifinals. They beat Turkey 6-1 in a friendly in March and will be looking to do the same Tuesday.
Turkey outlasted 10-man Czechia to finish in second in Group F and give itself a favorable matchup here against Austria. Turkey is an incredibly underrated team with a lot of talent all over the pitch. They have played really well since Vincenzo Montella took over and will be looking for revenge from that defeat against Austria in March.
Austria Picks
Austria pulled off a shocker and won Group D without actually putting up good numbers. Rangnick’s high pressing system is always going to leave itself vulnerable against teams that can either consistently play through that pressure or play balls in over the top. They conceded the fourth-most non-penalty expected goals during the group stage, and Turkey is well positioned here to give them a lot of problems.
While Austria has had some problems defending — and in some aspects gotten away with it — they have shown the benefits of Rangnick's system far out way the negatives. Austria will press out of a 4-4-2 and rely on pressing triggers to know when to jump the ball and when to sit in their mid-block. It's a system that requires incredible timing and intensity when closing down the ball, but they've done it perfectly so far this tournament.
What isn't talked about enough is how good Austria is in possession. They have been building up in a 3-1-6, while always having four guys in the middle of the pitch as the fullbacks provide width. That really allows them to not only dominate the middle and create chances that way, but they can get their fullbacks into a lot of one-on-one situations to create chances via crosses. Turkey has allowed the fourth-most crosses into its penalty area, which is another way Austria can exploit them Tuesday.
Austria's discipline to hold the red zone positions constantly. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/mVGed4iSpn
— Tactx (@Tactx_) June 26, 2024
Turkey Picks
There really isn’t much we can learn from Turkey’s 2-1 win over Czechia because they were playing up a man for over an hour of the match. However, what they have shown during this tournament is they are capable of hurting teams with long balls over the top, which they are going to need to do here.
Turkey has shown some vulnerabilities trying to build out of the back. They allowed 10-man Czechia to force eight high recoveries, and when they lost to Austria 6-1 in a friendly in March, they allowed Austria to force 15 high recoveries and score three goals off high turnovers.
That said, Turkey has so many great ball carriers and technicians all over the pitch to play through Austria's press. Montella will without a doubt learn from that 6-1 defeat and has proven himself to be a really good tactical manager, so he will have Turkey set up in the best structure for success.
While Turkey has been a good in-possession team, what is concerning for Turkey in this match is their defense has not been good in this tournament. They have allowed the fourth-most non-penalty expected goals and conceded almost two expected goals to 10-man Czechia.
Austria vs Turkey
Prediction
This is going to be a very fun back-and-forth match.
Austria has proven under Rangnick that playing conservatively is not in their DNA. They are going to press and make this match very transitional. With the problems Turkey had building out of the back against Austria in that 6-1 defeat in March, they are likely going to play more long balls over the top of the press, which will also play right into how Austria wants this match to go.
Both of these teams have not been good defensively — as they were both in the bottom five of expected goals allowed during the group stage — so I think we have a very high-event match on our hands.
I have 3.10 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Over 2.5 goals at -110.
