Barcelona and Bayern Munich meet for a huge Champions League match at Camp Nou.
Barcelona are flying in La Liga at the moment under Hansi Flick, sitting three points above their rivals Real Madrid. However, there is a lot of history between these two sides. Hansi Flick's Bayern Munich famously beat Barcelona 8-2 in the Champions League in 202o and then Bayern Munich beat Barcelona 5-0 on aggregate during the 2022-23 Champions League campaign.
Bayern Munich have been in great form under Vincent Kompany in the Bundesliga, but they were beaten 1-0 by Aston Villa in their previous Champions League match. That means this match is vitally important for them if they want to avoid a two-leg playoff and finish in the top eight of the league phase.
Here is my Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich prediction.
Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Barcelona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +140 | 3.5 -106o / -116u | +140 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -170 | 3.5 -106o / -116u | +160 |
- Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich moneyline odds: Barcelona +140, Bayern Munich +160, Draw +290
- Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich over/under: 3.5 goals (over -106, under -116)
- Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich pick: Bayern Munich – Draw No Bet
I am backing Bayern Munich draw no bet in Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich.
Barcelona Preview
Hansi Flick has transformed Barcelona in possession because he’s of a different mold from former Barcelona managers in the fact that he wants Barcelona to play more direct rather than relying on short passes. What is fascinating is the movements of all of the forwards to create a central overload. Now that Dani Olmo has been integrated into the squad, the build up is almost a 2-1-2-5, as Pedri and Olmo drop into the half spaces, Raphina moves into the midfield and Lewandowski can even drop deep. What this means is that it does not matter the defensive shape of the opposition, Barcelona are always going to have an overload centrally.
What is different about Flick is he wants his team to make aggressive passes to open up the opposing defense, so the combination of having the overload with aggressive passing from Pedri and Olmo makes Barcelona incredibly difficult to defend and it’s why they’ve already scored 33 goals and created 26.1 expected goals in 10 La Liga matches.
Barcelona aren't a one trick pony either because when they have the opportunity, Flick wants them to play as direct as possible. That will be particularly important in this match because of how good and aggressive Bayern has been with their press this season.
The one weakness under Flick is because they commit so many bodies in the middle of the pitch, when they lose the ball they are very vulnerable in wide areas. When they press from goal kicks, Raphinha and Lamal will make angled runs to try and force a central trap, but teams have been making simple over the top passes wide to the fullbacks, which has allowed an instant 2 v 1 out wide in a transition break on Barcelona's goal.
Bayern Munich Preview
Bayern Munich have maybe been the best team in all of Europe to begin the season, as Vincent Kompany has his team in a really good spot tactically.
It's all about overwhelming the opposition, as Bayern Munich are using a lot of different build up structures, but the goal remains the same no matter what. First, they are trying to overload the last line of defense by putting six, sometimes even seven guys on that line, which means either they will have a numerical advantage or the opposing defense will be forced to sit incredibly deep. The other goal is to overload and play through the middle of the pitch. Harry Kane and Musiala will often use opposite movements when one will drop deep to pull a defender with them and the other will make a run into that vacated space.
The central overload also means that Bayern can get their wingers into 1 v 1 situations, which will be big against Barcelona, who are very vulnerable out wide. This summer Bayern Munich brought in one of the best wingers in all of world football in Michael Olise to pair with Serge Gnarby, Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane.
The story of Bayern Munich is how good they have been defensively. Because they are overwhelming their opponents and pinning them inside their own final third, they are counter-pressing very aggressively and they have been really successful, which means opponents can rarely make it out of their third of the pitch. They've played three really good build up teams in Aston Villa, Leverkusen and Stuttgart and those three opponents only managed to create a total of one expected goal.
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich Prediction
For Hansi Flick, he will accept their flaws defensively because the reward in possession with Barcelona's central overload far outweighs the risk of getting exposed in transition. It has worked so far, but when you look at Barcelona's schedule, they haven't played anyone even close to the level of Bayern Munich.
The best team Barcelona have played was Athletic Bilbao in the second match of the season, so even though nobody knows Bayern Munich better than Hansi Flick, I think there are in for a rude awakening on Wednesday.
Bayern Munich have so many outstanding wingers that can torch Barcelona in wide areas and create loads of chances. In addition to that, Bayern Munich's press has neutralized Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Aston Villa so far this season, and they can do the exact same to Barcelona.
I have this match projected really close to a pick'em, so I like the value on Bayern Munich.
