Inter and Barcelona will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT in the UCL semi-finals first leg at Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys in Barcelona, Spain.
Barcelona is favored at a -155 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-175o / +135u) goals.
Let's get into my Inter vs. Barcelona prediction.
Inter vs. Barcelona Odds, Prediction
| Inter Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -135 | 2.5 -175o / 135u | +400 |
| Barcelona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 +100 | 2.5 -175o / 135u | -155 |
Inter vs. Barcelona spread: Barcelona -1 (+100), Inter +1 (-135)
Inter vs. Barcelona over/under: 2.5 (-175o / +135u)
Inter vs. Barcelona moneyline: Inter +400, Barcelona -155
Inter vs. Barcelona best bet: Barcelona Moneyline and First Team to Score
Inter Prediction
Inter has hit a snag at a crucial moment this season. They have lost their last three matches, all of them very costly. Defeats in Serie A to Bologna and Roma saw them drop to second place, three points behind the new leader, Napoli. The other loss was at the hands of city rival Milan, who knocked them out of Coppa Italia in the semi-finals.
Injuries are also a contributing factor to this turbulence. Marcus Thuram did not play in any of those three matches, and, maybe not coincidentally, Inter failed to score in all of them. The preferred attacking partner of captain Lautaro Martínez is recovering from a muscle injury and remains in doubt for this match. Defender Benjamin Pavard is out after leaving the pitch on Sunday with an ankle injury.
To replace Thuram upfront, manager Simone Inzaghi has many options, but none seem to convince him. He has started three different players (Joaquín Correa, Mehdi Taremi, and Marko Arnautovic) in his absence. Even if Thuram is fit to play, he might not be able to press and counter as he usually does.
Even though their terrific counterattacks lost effectiveness without Thuram as Lautaro's partner, the main strength of the Neroazzurri remains intact. They can defend any team with a mix of speed, organization, and solidarity that frustrates opponents. They only conceded one goal in the group stage, another one in the Round of 16, and three in the quarter-finals against Bayern Munich.
They had already faced Barcelona in the semi-finals in 2010 when they advanced on goal difference, later winning the title against Bayern in Madrid.
Barcelona Prediction
Barcelona comes with a huge morale boost after beating Real Madrid in extra time to lift the Copa del Rey on Saturday. With two titles in their pocket (they also won Spain's Super Cup), the club will now aim for LaLiga and the Champions League.
Striker Robert Lewandowski is still out, and left-back Alejandro Balde's return is doubtful, but their replacements, Ferran Torres and Gerard Martin, did great against Real Madrid in Saturday's final. The issue for manager Hansi Flick might be how to adapt the offense to find the cracks in Inter's defense without having Lewandowski as a target.
If the Italians feature a low block, any cross could be lost without a towering presence in the box. That's why Raphinha and Lamine Yamal will need to wreak havoc in one-on-one situations to create advantages for Ferran Torres and others to get the ball and score.
Barcelona has averaged 3.08 goals per game in this tournament, the highest mark, and they will need to keep the goals flowing if they want to have a chance to advance to the final in Munich. A win today is essential, as the draw forced them to close out this knockout series, like the last one, on the road.
The Blaugrana have won six out of seven matches at home in this Champions League, with the only exception being a 2-2 draw with Atalanta on the last matchday of the group stage when they were already qualified.
Inter vs. Barcelona Pick
On the surface, it may seem like a classic potent offense vs. great defense type of match. Also, you could think that because one team is on a high and the other is going through a losing streak, this outcome is already decided, but the Champions League is never that simple.
Barcelona is the favorite with good reason and should confirm it, at least in the first leg at their home ground, where they have been dominating.
Inter has faced them eight times in Barcelona and has only won once, in 1970, according to Transfermarkt. However, this does not seem like a high-score match, and Inter won't be run over.
Inter vs. Barcelona Pick: Barcelona Moneyline and First Team to Score
