Barcelona vs Real Madrid Odds
| Barcelona Odds | +200 |
| Real Madrid Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Here's everything you need to know about Barcelona vs. Real Madrid on Sunday, Jan. 14 — our expert prediction and betting picks for the Spanish Super Cup.
For the first domestic club trophy in Spain this season, Real Madrid and Barcelona meet at Al-Hilal Stadium in Saudi Arabia for El Clásico in the Supercopa de España final.
Xavi’s side won that matchup to lift the trophy last season by beating its rivals 3-1 thanks to goals from Robert Lewandowski, Gavi and Pedri.
Who doesn’t love an additional El Clásico on the schedule? With the pressure of lifting a trophy added to this huge rivalry, this should be a great match Sunday. Let's get into a breakdown and a Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction.
Barcelona
This trophy would go a long way in helping Xavi keep his job after his name appears to be on the hot seat with the bad start to the campaign.
Barcelona comes into this weekend third in the La Liga table, trailing behind Girona and Madrid by seven points. However, the underlying metrics do paint a different picture.
On the season, Xavi’s side has the best xGDiff in the Spanish top flight at +23.0, according to fbref.com. Meanwhile, the Catalan club has also generated the most expected goals and big scoring chances in the league.
With a win here and the club advancing to the Champions League knockout rounds, it should be enough for Xavi to continue as manager for now.
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Real Madrid
It has been business as usual for Carlo Ancelotti, who also recently extended his contract to stay at the club. Real Madrid only has one league loss and won every game in the group stage of the UCL.
The key to this has been the signing of the season, Jude Bellingham. The English star has been sensational in his debut campaign for the club, scoring 17 goals and assisting on five more in all competitions.
There is plenty of credit that should also go to Ancelotti, who has found the right formation to involve Bellingham with Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior.
With this young nucleus of stars, Madrid is set to continue to be a world power for many years to come.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Prediction
Whenever El Clásico comes up on the schedule, I instantly look at the goals market, and I was shocked to see the line set at FanDuel. My best bet is for the total to fly over 2.5 goals at -126 odds, which I would play to -140. I also don’t hate a look at pairing this play with both teams to score at -101.
In the last seven meetings in La Liga dating back four seasons, this same play would have cashed in every game. There have also been at least three goals in the last two matches between the rivals in this same competition.
Another key piece to this is who Real Madrid will be missing defensively. Ancelotti will be without his main center-back pairing of David Alaba and Éder Militão, while Thibaut Courtois is also out for the season.
That does not fare well against a Barcelona attack that has averaged 3.06 expected goals and five big scoring chances per match over the last five league games.
If I was picking a side, I would lean towards Xavi’s team, but I’ll stick with the trend of goals when these two teams meet.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-133 via FanDuel)
