Bayer Leverkusen are looking to keep up their impressive play at home against AC Milan in the second match day of the Champions League.
Bayer Leverkusen are coming off a borderline training exercise in their 4-0 beatdown at Feyenoord, proving that their Bundesliga league title was no fluke.
AC Milan are also in good form after starting their season in Serie A slowly, coming off of a 3-0 win against Lecce and a 2-1 victory in the Derby Della Madonnina.
Let’s get into my preview for Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Bayer Leverkusen Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -163 | 2.5 -188o / +150u | -163 |
| AC Milan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +125 | 2.5 -188o / +150u | +400 |
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan moneyline odds: Bayer Leverkusen -163, AC Milan +400, Draw +320
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan over/under: 2.5 goals (over -188, under +150)
- Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan pick: AC Milan +0.5
I am backing AC Milan+0.5 in AC Milan vs. Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen Preview
Leverkusen looked very strong in their opening match at Feyenoord, dominating the game in transition and creating chances off of their attacks. That’s definitely been their hallmark in their play is their transition offense, especially against teams like Feyenoord and the lower-level Bundesliga sides.
However, when facing a proven opponent like Leverkusen did this past weekend at Bayern Munich, their plan is a lot different. Robert Andrich was able to give Leverkusen an early lead in this fixture, prompting them to implement a gameplan of playing not to lose, which is exactly what happened. Aleksander Pavlovic equalized a little under 10 minutes after and this match ultimately ended 1-1 with a scoreless second half.
It seems as if Bayer Leverkusen are a team that likes to beat down the lower-quality teams and play not to lose against the higher-quality teams. That's a fairly logical gameplan, but playing too conservatively can, and probably will, bite you at some point down the road. The clash in style in this match is also likely to expose some new weaknesses in Leverkusen’s team, as the matches between German and Italian teams always seem to be pretty interesting in that regard.
AC Milan Preview
AC Milan had a very less than ideal start to the season in Serie A, picking up two draws and a loss in their first three matches. Since then, Paulo Fonseca has been able to silence the critics a little bit, picking up two wins against Venezia and Inter Milan. After Fonseca’s first five league matches and a 3-1 beatdown against Liverpool, I really do not know what to make of this AC Milan side.
They have very good defenders on paper in Theo Hernandez and Fikayo Tomori, but their defense has allowed seven goals in five matches in Serie A and three goals in one Champions League game. Their offense appears to be producing nicely, with Christian Pulisic really starting to shine at his new home in Milan. With Pulisic and Leao on the flanks and big target man Tammy Abraham as the No. 9, this kind of offense is certainly good enough to score more than one goal in a game against a team like Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. AC Milan Prediction
There really are so many ways this match can unfold. With so many questions for either team, this match will be pretty telling about what we as handicappers can expect of them in big-game situations. When looking at the price of both teams, Bayer Leverkusen coming in at around -140 and AC Milan sitting at just under +400, I do not think that the margin between these teams is really that wide.
When thinking about how this match is likely to play out, I do see Leverkusen going with the more conservative approach that they played with against Bayern Munich and I expect more of the same from AC Milan. Coupled with the style clash and managerial identities, a blowout from either side seems unlikely but a shootout could very well happen. For me, I think backing the away side in some capacity seems the smarter choice as I really don’t think these two teams are all that much different in terms of quality.
Even though the price on Leverkusen would likely be higher, probably laying at least a goal on the spread, if they were to have secured a victory against Bayern, I’m willing to take a chance on AC Milan at +0.5 at +125.
Pick: AC Milan +0.5 goals (+125 via DraftKings)
How to Watch Champions League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 1 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Paramount+ / YouTube TV, Fubo |
