Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Predictions
| Bayern Munich Odds | +145 |
| Arsenal Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
One week ago, Arsenal entered their Champions League tie as the clear favorite to advance against Bayern Munich in the public eye and in the betting markets. Arsenal also led the Premier League table with seven matches to play. A week later, Bayern now have the small edge in this Champions League quarterfinal, returning home to Munich after a 2-2 draw in London on Tuesday. Arsenal followed the Bayern draw with a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa on Sunday in the Premier League, ceding control of the title race to Manchester City — now a -225 favorite to win the EPL again.
Those two losses for Arsenal turn Wednesday's second leg into the biggest match of both clubs' season. As much progress as has been made this year for Mikel Arteta's side, they are in clear danger of ending on a sour note if they don't make the semifinal.
Bayern Munich's streak of 11 consecutive Bundesliga titles officially came to an end on Sunday when Bayer Leverkusen beat Werder Bremen to clinch the club's first ever German title. With Thomas Tuchel set to leave at the end of the season, the Champions League is the only thing Bayern has left to play for. Their entire season hinges on this competition. The stakes couldn't be higher and while Bayern has the experience edge, major questions remain about their defensive solidity.
Read on for my Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich used both Thomas Muller and Harry Kane centrally in the first leg to draw in both of Arsenal's center backs and leave the Gunners' fullbacks isolated one-on-one on each wing with Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sané. Bayern played extremely direct in the first half of the tie and really flustered Arsenal's usually elite transition defense. The first Bayern goal came from a poor pass at the back and high turnover, but the second goal is a direct result of Sané's elite dribbling ability and close control skills.
Arsenal really found advantages against Bayern's makeshift backline though, and the issues in the back four should persist for Bayern in this matchup. The defense has been considerably worse since Eric Dier and Matthias de Ligt became the starting central pair over Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae. Upamecano has made his fair share of Champions League errors under pressure with the ball so it's no surprise to see him dropped against the Arsenal press, but Dier and de Ligt will also be stretched given Bayern's full back issues. The absence of Alphonso Davies for the second leg means that either defensive liability Raphael Guerriero or recently fit Noussair Mazaroui will start at left back and likely be tasked with marking Bukayo Saka for stretches.
Bayern will not have Kingsley Coman or Gnabry for the second leg either, which limits their wide forward explosiveness. The question is whether or not Bayern can replicate their attacking performance against the best defensive side in Europe. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Mikel Arteta adjust tactically away from home and look to play more out of possession and in transition against this vulnerable Bayern transition defense.
Arsenal
It's a quick turnaround for Arteta's Arsenal, and the second half against Aston Villa was one of the worst halves the Gunners have played in the Premier League all year. Not only were they outscored 2-0 late, but the defense had more holes and the attack struggled to create against Unai Emery's mid-block and counter approach.
Arteta commented on Tuesday that both Saka and Martin Odegaard are not 100% fit and will be tested ahead of the match on Wednesday. I'd be shocked if either didn't start. Arteta is likely just playing up the fatigue angle and trying to conjure up some uncertainty the day before the match. The market took note of Arteta's comments though, as Bayern moved from a small home favorite of +145 on the three-way moneyline down closer to +130 as of Tuesday night.
Arsenal's press requires a ton of energy out of possession and you have to wonder if they have the legs for a third grueling match in eight days here. Bayern were able to rotate many of their first choice because the Bundesliga race is over, while Arsenal are still going full tilt for a PL title.
Despite Bayern's success in transition to create the 2-3 big moments, Arsenal fully were the better side in the first leg. The Gunners had 26 touches in the Bayern box compared to 14 in the reverse, and entered the penalty area 17 times versus just seven for the German side. Arteta made some tactical switches in the second half to better shut down Bayern in transition, and I have a feeling he will set up very defensive and look to play more off ball and in transition for this second leg. It's not all that different from how Xabi Alonso positioned Leverkusen in his home win against Bayern in the league.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Prediction
Arsenal are the better team in my power ratings and I have this lined with Arsenal right around a pick'em in Munich. The Gunners have the much more reliable defense, and an away match where they can lean on their out of possession skills and threaten Bayern's shaky back line on the break is an ideal spot to back them.
Despite the solid performance at Arsenal in the first leg based on xG, Bayern's Champions League form has still been quite shaky all year and they shouldn't be laying even a quarter goal in this quarterfinal. I'd bet Arsenal +0.25 at -120 or better or take them draw no bet at +117 or better.
