Bayern Munich vs Copenhagen Prediction | Wednesday Champions League Preview

Wednesday, Nov. 29

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Bayern Munich Odds	-450
Copenhagen Odds	+1200
Draw	+650
Over / Under	2.5  -275 / +210

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Bayern Munich look to keep their incredible Champions League group stage win streak going when they host Copenhagen.

Bayern have already wrapped up first place in Group A with two matches to spare. They have perhaps one of the most impressive win streaks going at the moment. On December 1st, 2020 they drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid in the group stage, since then they have not dropped a single point winning 16 straight matches. While there is not incentive to win this match, I highly doubt Bayern Munich want that win streak to end, especially at home.

Copenhagen notched a historic 4-3 come from behind win over Manchester United in Denmark to give them a real shot at getting out of this group and into the round of 16. They put in a fantastic performance in the previous match with Bayern Munich in a 2-1 loss, but the question is, can they repeat that performance on the road?

Here is how I'm betting Bayern Munich vs Copenhagen.

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich are putting up maybe some of the most ridiculous underlying metrics in the Bundesliga right now. They are averaging an astounding 2.99 xG per 90 minutes and are averaging 19.6 shots per 90 minutes. The biggest difference with this Bayern team as opposed to last season is Harry Kane. One of the best pure goal scorers in the world surrounded by some of the best attacking talent as well is a deadly combination and Bayern are reaping the rewards big time.

What Tuchel has done this season and why Bayern Munich have been so good at is the box midfield that he’s implemented, which allows players when they’re on the ball to have three passing options instead of the usual two in a triangle midfield, and it also allows Bayern to overload the middle of the pitch, which is where the goals are. Now that they have a striker like Harry Kane who is fantastic at dropping deep to receive the ball and is great at hold up play, you can see how big of an impact it’s had on Bayern Munich.

The downside of the box midfield is you are committing so many players to the middle of the pitch which means that teams have space in wide areas to counter, which is what Copenhagen did in the previous meeting with pretty good success.

Copenhagen

Copenhagen may have beaten Manchester United, but the first 40 minutes before the Marcus Rashford red card was a train wreck. United were consistently playing the ball right through their man to man press and ended up scoring two goals off of 2.23 xG, so you could only imagine how many United would have racked up if they were playing with 11 men for the remainder of the match.

With that being said, Copenhagen's approach against Bayern Munich in Denmark was much more passive and put a big time emphasis on staying solid in their defensive block. They are the only team to hav kept Bayern Munich under 1 xG this season, which is a fantastic accomplishment. The problem is, I am not sure that is repeatable on the road.

They did do a lot of the same principles that Galatasaray had a lot of success with against Bayern Munich, which was utilizing a lot of long balls with attackers making runs off the back line or switching the play into wide areas and catching Bayern overloaded on the other side of the pitch. Copenhagen had a 55% pass completion rate on long balls and switched the play four times. They also had some success playing direct right through the middle of the pitch, which is an encouraging sign because Bayern are one of the better counter-pressing teams in the world.

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Bayern Munich vs Copenhagen

Prediction

This is an interesting spot for Bayern Munich. They could decide to rest some guys, but they are taking on last place Union Berlin this weekend in the Bundesliga, so there really isn't an incentive to completely rotate the squad.

The question is, are Copenhagen going to be able to do what they did defensively in the first meeting and keep Bayern Munich under 1 xG for just the second time this season? That is a tough ask, but their game plan was very similar to that of Galatasaray, which has worked against Bayern Munich this season because long balls have been able to cut through their defensive shape.

I am sure Bayern Munich will want to keep their group stage win streak going, but this number on them is too high considering they have nothing to play for.

Pick: Copenhagen +2 (via BetRivers)