Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -500 |
| Galatasaray Odds | +1100 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -150 / +120 |
Bayern Munich have won all three of their Champions League matches thus far and have taken a commanding lead in Group A as the second half of the double round robin begins on Wednesday. The German side's underlying numbers have largely underwhelmed though, and their opponents have created more chances than they have.
Despite nine goals and a +4 goal differential, Bayern's negative expected goal differential raises some alarm bells about whether they should be this big of a favorite when Galatasaray visit Munich on Wednesday.
Bayern won the reverse fixture 3-1 in Turkey, but the underlying statistics from that match tell a very different story. Galatasaray outshot Bayern 16-3 in the first half of the match and created 2.7 xG in total. Galatasaray came out aggressively and the match became wide open and stretched quite quickly. You’d expect that to favor Bayern because of their superior attacking talent, but the German side struggled to generate clear shots and chances. Bayern are at their best when Harry Kane is able to come short and help in build up, and then spring the pacey wingers in behind.
Galatasaray did an excellent job of limiting Kane in the first leg, but can they recreate that performance in Germany? Here is my Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray prediction.
Check out our latest bet365 promo code before making your Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray pick.
Bayern Munich
Bayern could book their place in the knockout stage of the Champions League with a win and could even clinch the group title with a win and a Manchester United draw/loss in Copenhagen on Wednesday. The German side is expected to have both Leon Goretzka and Dayot Upamecano available to start, based on comments that Thomas Tuchel made. They might have the longest unbeaten run in the history of the Champions League group stage at 37 matches, but this hasn't been an ordinary CL campaign for Bayern.
Last season, Bayern dominated the group of death, beating Inter and Barcelona comfortably. This season, despite a weaker group, more cracks have emerged. Bayern have scored nine goals from 4.9 xGA, which has masked the fact the overall attacking profile hasn't been impressive at all. Bayern closed a two-goal favorite in Copenhagen in match week two and finished the match with 0.9 xG and just 31 penalty box touches (Copenhagen had 19). They then closed as a -225 moneyline favorite in Turkey two weeks ago and the final penalty area touches were just 25-23 in favor of Bayern.
When you consider how much Bayern have dominated the Bundesliga this year (+2.31 xG difference per 90 minutes), it makes you wonder why that hasn't translated into Europe. All of the German teams have been relatively inconsistent in Europe this year outside of Bayer Leverkusen. Borussia Dortmund were outplayed by PSG and Milan, RB Leipzig were uncompetitive at home vs. Manchester City,. Freiburg, Eintracht Frankfurt and Union Berlin have been mediocre in the other competitions. It's possible that the Bundesliga quality is quite down right now and that's creating a false pretense of how good Bayern really are.
Galatasaray
Galatasaray lost starting goalkeeper Fernando Muslera to injury, which means that backup goalkeeper Gunay Guvenc will make his Champions League debut on Wednesday. Otherwise, Galatasaray are as healthy as they've been all season. Mauro Icardi was barely fit enough to start for the reverse fixture, but he's now in fine form entering this match. The Turkish side have won 10 straight matches domestically and have an extra day of rest to recover and travel since they played on Friday domestically.
One problem with Galatasaray teams of the past was that they had too many players past their primes who couldn't quite cut it at the CL level anymore. This version of the team isn't quite that old, and it's made a massive difference in their European outcomes. They were able to go toe to toe with Manchester United and Bayern and not be overwhelmed athletically. Willfried Zaha, Icardi and Hakim Ziyech is an excellent front three filled with shots, passing range and ball carrying ability.
The midfield has forced the second-most high turnovers in the entire group stage to this point. If they had better finishing early in games against Copenhagen and Bayern, it's possible that they'd be the ones sitting at the top of the Group A standings right now.
Bayern Munich vs Galatasaray
Prediction
Through three matches, Galatasaray have the clear best xG difference in this group. Galatasaray did a solid job of breaking up Bayern’s build up through the middle of the pitch and forcing all of the attacks to come from wide areas in the first meeting.
There are questions about whether Galatasaray can sustain that level of pressing for a full 90 minutes, as they seemed to tire out in the final 15. But given that Galatasaray were able to outplay the second-best team in Europe — by market rating — for an hour, suggests to me that they should not be a full two-goal underdog in this match.
I’d bet them +2 and sprinkle +700 on the first half moneyline as well.
