Bayern Munich vs Man United Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -222 |
| Man United Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
The biggest match of the week in the Champions League takes place at the Allianz Arena, as Bayern Munich host Manchester United.
Bayern Munich are off to a good start in the Bundesliga after losing the German Super Cup to RB Leipzig. Thomas Tuchel's side has won three of their first four matches and are tied a top the Bundesliga. Bayern have been the best Champions League group stage team of the last two years, winning all 12 matches despite being put in a group with Barcelona in back-to-back years.
United are in a little bit of a crisis at the moment. The Red Devils are coming off a 3-1 beat down at home against Brighton which dropped them into the bottom half of the Premier League table. Erik Ten Haag is caught between two different tactics at the moment and has a major injury crisis to deal with, so this could be a catastrophic day in Germany if things go poorly.
Here is my Bayern Munich vs Man United pick and prediction.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have obviously been one of the best teams in the Champions League group stage over the past three years or so, but a lot of that success, especially last season when they dominated the group of death with Barcelona and Inter, was with Julian Naglesmann. The results of Thomas Tuchel’s version of Bayern Munich have been far less dominant than under Nagelsmann.
However, in the entire Naglesman era, which included an entire season with Lewondowski, Bayern had a +1.64 xGD per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga. It’s a small sample size, but in 12 matches in the Bundesliga under Tuchel, Bayern have a +1.70 xGD per 90 minutes.
Now, there have been some poor results from Tuchel where he’s lost to RB Leipzig twice, got knocked out the Champions League by Manchester City and even losing to his former club Mainz. However, now that they have one of the best number nines in the world in Harry Kane, Bayern have become extremely dangerous again when last year they couldn’t figure out the number nine position and Tuchel kept having to tinker with his build up shapes.
Especially in this matchup at home, Bayern should be able to overload one side of the pitch with ease given the amount of elite attacking players Tuchel has at his disposal.
Man United
The match against Brighton on Saturday is just a microcosm of the problems that currently exist at Manchester United. Ever since Ole Gunnar Solskjær left, both Ralph Ragnick and Ten Haag have tried to turn United into an elite pressing team and they don't have the personnel to do that.
To be an elite pressing team you have a PPDA under 10 and Manchester United haven't achieved that at any stage over the past three seasons. For a press to be effective, everyone has to be working in unison and pressing with the same intensity. Right now that is not the case. Because of that and because due to injuries Manchester United are forced to play Diogo Dalot out of position at left back, Brighton overloaded that side of the pitch time and time again and were able to create a ton chances because of it.
Brighton's Passing Network
From @markrstatspic.twitter.com/aVC7eAxe0m
— MT (@MT_Analysis) September 17, 2023
Ten Haag has come out and said that he wants to turn Manchester United into the best transition team in the world. To do that you have to be able to press and close down opponents so that you have space and numerical advantages in those transition opportunities. He's right in the fact that to beat a lot of the elite sides around the world you have to be elite in transition, but if you can't press effectively you cannot become elite transitionally.
There is also the personnel issue that Manchester United are dealing with. The Red Devils are going to be without Luke Shaw, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Mason Mount, Raphael Varane and Antony for this match. Being this depleted going up against one of the best teams in the world is a massive problem.
Bayern Munich vs Man United
Pick & Prediction
This match has Bayern Munich rout written all over it. If Brighton are able to tactically break down and play through Manchester United's press with ease, then the German champions should be able to take to another level.
The only option Ten Haag has is to sit deep and try to defend in a low block, but he's without three of his usual four starters across his backline. You add on the fact that their world class ball stopper in the middle of pitch, Casemiro, is in poor form right now and United are in big trouble.
Therefore, I like the value on Bayern Munich on the spread -1.5 at +130.
Pick: Bayern Munich -1.5 (+130 via Caesars)
