In one of the best games of the week, Benfica and Atlético Madrid meet in Portugal for match day 2 in the Champions League.
The Portuguese club picked up a nice win in its opener by going on the road to defeat Red Star Belgrade.
Meanwhile, the Spanish squad needed a dramatic late goal to pick up all three points against RB Leipzig.
This should be a feisty game at the Estádio da Luz, and I'm expecting a very close fixture in the UCL.
Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Benfica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 2.5 -118o / -104u | +330 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 -118o / -104u | -125 |
- Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid moneyline odds: Benfica +190, Atletico Madrid +145, Draw +240
- Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid over/under: 2.5 goals (over -114, under -108)
- Benfica vs. Atletico Madrid pick: Draw (+240)
I am backing the draw in Atletico Madrid vs. Benfica.
Atletico Madrid Preview
In case you missed it over the summer, there are not many clubs that splashed the cash more than Atlético did, which should give Diego Simeone plenty of new attackers.
The largest name of the group is Julián Alvarez, who moved over from Manchester City. The Argentine striker is joined in attack by Alexander Sørloth from Villarreal.
The signings didn’t end there for Simeone as Conor Gallagher (Chelsea) and Robin Le Normand (Real Sociedad) also joined the squad.
Simeone is still tinkering with his lineup early in the season to find his strongest starting 11, but I trust the veteran manager to get the most out of his team.
Benfica Preview
This has already been an interesting campaign at Benfica. After just four games, the club sacked the current manager to bring in a former one in Bruno Lage.
The former Wolves coach did lead the time to fantastic results domestically during his tenure. The 2018-19 Benfica side racked up 103 goals, tying a club record and the best mark since the 1963-64 campaign.
His return to Portugal has come with solid results, and Lage inherits a team that has a mix of veterans with newcomers.
Some of the mainstays that most fans recognize are Ángel Di María and defender Nicolás Otamendi. With the club bringing in Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis in the summer, it will be interesting to see what Lage can do in his return.
Atletico Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction
Portugal is not an easy place for away teams to go to get a result in European competition, and I believe multiple factors trend towards this game ending in a stalemate.
So, my best bet for the match is the draw at +240 odds at bet365, which I would bet down to +225. I also don’t hate a sprinkle for the game to end 1-1 at +550.
Simeone has been successful in this tournament over the years. One of the ways he has accomplished this has been his pragmatic approach away from home.
In fact, Atlético have only won one of their last nine UCL road games. This is what keeps me away from the Spanish side as a favorite here.
Last season two of Madrid’s three matches away from home in the Champions League group stage finished as a tie. After winning the opener of this competition, I could see Simeone being fine with another point here.
Also, the oddsmakers are pointing out to you how close they feel this fixture will be. Both teams to score is priced at -143, but the total is only set at 2.5.
It feels like a cautious approach by both managers, so I’ll take the great odds for the draw in Portugal.
