Benfica and Feyenoord meet at the Estádio da Luz in Portugal on Wednesday for match day 3 in the Champions League.
The Portuguese squad has found great form after an early-season manager switch, winning both games in the tournament so far.
Meanwhile, the Dutch club bounced back from an opening loss to win at Girona, looking for another win to move up the table.
This has been a difficult stadium for visiting teams, and I’m expecting another home result here. So, let's preview the action and give our best bet for Benfica hosting Feyenoord.
Let's get into my Benfica vs. Feyenoord prediction.
Benfica vs. Feyenoord Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Benfica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -220 | 2.5 -190o / +156u | -220 |
| Feyenoord Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +160 | 2.5 -190o / +156u | +550 |
- Benfica vs. Feyenoord moneyline odds: Benfica -220, Feyenoord +550, Draw +360
- Benfica vs. Feyenoord over/under: 2.5 goals (over -190, under +156)
- Benfica vs. Feyenoord pick: Benfica and over 2
I am backing the Benfica and over 2 in Feyenoord vs. Benfica.
Benfica Preview
This has already been an interesting campaign at Benfica. After just four games, the club sacked the current manager to bring in former c0ach Bruno Lage.
The former Wolves coach did lead the team to fantastic results domestically during his tenure. The 2018-19 Benfica side racked up 103 goals, tying a club record and the best mark since the 1963-64 campaign.
His return to Portugal has come with solid results. Under his management, Benfica have won all five games in all competitions, including both in this tournament against Red Star Belgrade and Atlético Madrid.
It has been the Turkish duo of Orkun Kökçü and Kerem Aktürkoğlu who have led the side so far. The pair has combined for eight goals and five assists on the season, and both will need a good performance here.
Feyenoord Preview
After a five-year hiatus from the tournament, Feyenoord are now in their second straight season in the UCL, making it the first back-to-back appearances since the 2001-02 and 2002-03 campaigns.
Unfortunately, the success brought some unwanted attention from bigger clubs, with Liverpool poaching manager Arne Slot. Feyenoord elected to bring in Sparta Prague manager Brian Priske.
He has had mixed results so far to start the season, which includes splitting the games in this competition against Bayern Leverkusen and Girona.
Priske’s team has won four of its last five matches, and a victory here would be Feyenoord’s first time winning successive games in the same UCL campaign since February 2000.
This could be a result to kick-start his tenure in the Netherlands.
Benfica vs. Feyenoord Prediction
As I mentioned at the top, I love backing Benfica when they are playing at home on European nights. Ultimately, it comes down to picking the best route to do so.
With that said, my best bet is a same game parlay, pairing a home victory with the total flying over two goals at +110 at bet365. I would play this down to -110.
I mentioned the form Benfica have been on since the change of manager, and the advanced stats paint a similar picture. In the last five games, Lage’s team has posted a +10.6 xGDiff and averaged 2.78 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com.
You could be thinking that Benfica are just beating up on weak Portuguese opposition. However, this is the same squad that beat Atlético Madrid 4-0 and racked up seven big chances.
Yes, Feyenoord did get a good result in Spain, but I also believe it is a Girona team that is not as good as last year. When the Dutch side stepped up in class against Leverkusen, it was beaten by four goals.
This same bet has cashed in every game under Lage, and I think it will be another dominant showing in Portugal for Benfica here.
