Benfica vs Inter Milan Odds
| Benfica Odds | +140 |
| Inter Milan Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -112 |
Simone Inzaghi and his Inter Milan squad will be travelling to Portugal to take on Benfica in a Champions League Group D clash. Inter have already qualified for the knockout stage of this year’s Champions League, while Benfica have officially no chance of making the knockout stage. Their only motivation in this match is coming third to potentially gain a spot in the Europa League.
Benfica have been very poor in their four group stage matches, losing all four and putting themselves rock bottom of Group D with 0 points. On the other hand, their league form has been brilliant all year. They have won nine of their 11 matches and sit top of the Primeira Liga.
Inter have been fantastic in all competitions throughout this season. In their 17 matches this season, they have only lost one. They sit top of Serie A and are tied atop Group D with 10 points in their four matches.
Let’s get into how I see this match going and how to bet Benfica vs Inter Milan.
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Benfica
There’s no two ways around it, Benfica have been poor in their group stage matches. In their four matches they have scored just one goal on 3.1 xG, but they have conceded seven goals on a massive 11.3 xGA. They have lost their xG battle by an average of two in their four matches. There is no way to mask just how poor they have been.
In their last match against Real Sociedad, they lost 3-1 and gave up 3.3 xG. When they played Inter at the San Siro, they only lost 1-0 but gave up a mind-boggling 3.8 xG. It makes it look that much worse with the fact that they have been over-performing in these matches. Anatolii Trubin, the Benfica goalkeeper has saved almost a goal a game.
Benfica have a near full-fit side for this match, with the exception of their right back Bah and winger David Neres. Schmidt typically plays a 4-2-3-1 formation with the fullbacks pushing forward to help the attack while the wingers invert and push further inside. This has proven efficient in their league form, but against some of the best sides in the world they have been completely exposed.
We will see if there is more of a fire for these Benfica players to not come bottom of the group. But they will have to be on their 'A' game, even if Inter are resting some of their players.
Inter Milan
Inzaghi’s men have been unbelievable in all competitions this year, mainly due to their defensive abilities. They have conceded just seven goals in Serie A and just two in the Champions League. The highest xG they have conceded this season is 1.3 and they have only conceded more than 1 xG in three matches all season. Basically, this defensive unit is elite.
They play five at the back with wingbacks Dumfries and Dimarco pushing forward to join the attack, so it becomes more of a three-back formation when they are in possession. They have one of the top goalkeepers in Italy with Yann Sommer and their backline will most likely consist of Acerbi, de Vrij and Darmian.
In regards to going forward, Inter are a good attacking side but have also been very fortunate. They have Lautaro Martinez, who is over-performing his xG by 5.4. That is a huge number given that he has only played in 13 matches this season, but that is why he has 13 goals up to this point.
The only injuries they have in this match are Bastoni, who is dealing with a calf injury, and Pavard, who is dealing with a knee injury. These are the only two that are out due to injury, but because they have already qualified for the knockout stage, Inzaghi may be inclined to rest some of his key players. This is why Benfica are favorites in this match.
Benfica vs Inter Milan
Prediction
There is too much uncertainty with the lineup that Inzaghi is going to put out in this match that I cannot bet on Inter in this one. But on the flip side, Benfica have been so poor in this group stage that I also cannot bet on them. Therefore, I will be betting on the total in this one.
Inter will likely play a few people who are not usually in the starting 11 and will likely be motivated to make an impression in the minutes that they do get. Benfica will also be motivated to get something out of this match, but I also thought that about their last match against Sociedad.
Because both sides will be looking to win this one and Benfica will likely throw men forward as they have nothing to lose, I will be taking over the over.
