Benfica vs Real Sociedad Odds
| Benfica Odds | +120 |
| Real Sociedad Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Benfica are in a desperation home spot after totaling zero points in their first two matches in the Champions League. The Portuguese champions lost their CL opener at home to RB Salzburg after an early red card and then were entirely uncompetitive in a 1-0 loss at Inter Milan in match day two. To have any chance of advancing from the group, they'll need to win this match against a stingy Real Sociedad defensive outfit.
Sociedad have been the best team in the group through two matches, as the Spanish side outplayed Inter in their 1-1 draw and then had a routine 2-0 win on the road in Salzburg.
Inter are still the clear favorite to win the group based on the betting odds and underlying team strength, but Sociedad have emerged as the clear second-favorite. They'll be aiming to get a point here and even rotated attacker Takefusa Kubo in their weekend La Liga match to be ready for this matchup.
Let's dive into Benfica vs Real Sociedad.
Benfica
Benfica play an aggressive press and possess system under Roger Schmidt, but they have had some alarming defensive regression thus far this season when you compare them to last year's heights. They only conceded 20 goals and 23 xG in the entirety of the Primeira Liga season last year (34 matches). Through the first eight matches of the new year in Portugal, they've already conceded 8.9 xGA. That's a jump from 0.68 xGA per match to 1.1.
When they've gone up in competition and played in Europe, the numbers have also been quite poor defensively. Benfica conceded 3.3 xGA to Salzburg (with two penalties) and 3.8 xGA to Inter in the next match.
Benfica's attack was still pretty effective at progressing the ball into the penalty area of their opponents in the first two matchweeks, but the lack of shot production and quality in the post Gonçalo Ramos era was apparent. They had 17 touches in the Inter penalty area, but tallied six shots, 0.3 xGF.
The attack is heavily reliant on 35-year-old Angel Di Maria and wide forward David Neres for production. Neres is a solid producer overall, but his goal scoring production has never been the focal point of his game.
Because of how open they are at the back, Benfica conceded 39 box touches to Inter. Now that Benfica is facing one of the best defenses in Europe, the goals may be difficult to come by.
Real Sociedad
If you just looked at the raw xG numbers for Real Sociedad's defense this year, you'd think that they'd taken a real step back overall. They rank 11th in shots allowed per 90 and eighth in non-penalty xGA through the opening stages of the La Liga season.
Despite the overall xGA numbers being worse, the defensive field tilt, press and box entry numbers remain quite positive. Sociedad ranks second in passes per defensive action, and they allow the lowest pass completion rate and the fewest box entries in the Spanish top flight. They have an elite ball stopping ability in the midfield and they're very effective at playing through an opponent's press.
The underlying numbers for the Sociedad attack are considerably more alarming from a season long perspective. They rank in the bottom half of Spain in most attacking metrics, but some of the numbers are dampened by the fact that they've dealt with a lot of injuries and rotation early in the year.
The weakened lineup had real problems creating chances in the first three matches especially — Sociedad produced just 2.5 xGF in its first three draws. Since then, the attack has bounced back and ranks sixth in xGF since.
Benfica vs Real Sociedad
Pick & Prediction
The market opened Benfica as an even money home favorite, which implies that they are the better team on a neutral field than Sociedad. I came into the year considerably lower than the market on Benfica, whose market rating was built up on winning an overrated CL group and advancing to back to back quarterfinals.
Now that they've lost talent and the defense has regressed, Sociedad are the stronger side and should be close to a tossup in this match.
