Best Bets Across Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 & La Liga

Outside of the Premier League, it's a pretty dull slate across Europe's other four main leagues, but that doesn't mean there isn't value on the board.

If you'd like to see my projections for the Premier League, along with all three European competitions (Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League), you can find them here.

If you'd like to listen to the audio form of this article, I am also part of the Wondergoal Podcast with my co-hosts Michael Leboff and Anthony Dabbundo.

If you'd like to see picks from me for all European leagues, you can follow me in the Action Network App.

Bundesliga

Projections

Augsburg vs. Koln

Augsburg is back to luck boxing their way to stay in the Bundesliga. Because Bochum has conceded 13 penalties in 27 matches, Augsburg is now last in Germany in npxGD at -22.4 in just 26 matches.

Augsburg is one of the few low block, non-high pressing teams in Germany, but they’re not effective in doing so and are only averaging 1.09 npxG per 90 minutes. They’re very reliant on set pieces, which is where they’ve created 36.3% of their non-penalty expected goals this season. They're also the fifth-most efficient set piece offense in the Bundesliga, per The Analyst. The problem is Koln is the second-best defense in the Bundesliga at defending set pieces.

Koln is on a bad run of form at the moment, but the underlying performances suggest they are going to turn things around quickly. They’re winless in their past six matches with a -13 goal differential, but their expected goal differential during that time is only -2.8.

Koln also presents a lot of problems offensively for Augsburg’s low block. First off, while Koln is middle of the table in xG, they’ve created the fourth-most big scoring chances. Augsburg has conceded the most big scoring chances in the Bundesliga.

Secondly, Koln loves to attack in wide areas and has completed the fifth-most crosses into the opponent's penalty area. Augsburg is last at defending crosses.

Finally, Koln is the second-most efficient team by xG per set pieces. Augsburg is bottom five at defending set pieces.

I have Koln projected as a +100 road favorite, so I love the value on their Draw no Bet Line.

Pick: Koln Draw no Bet (-125 at Caesars)

The must-have app for college basketball bettors

The best NCAAB betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Serie A

Projections

Salernitana vs. Inter

Salernitana is the second-worst defense in Italy, allowing 1.80 xG per 90 minutes. Against the “Big Seven” in Italy (Roma, Napoli, Juventus, Inter, AC Milan, Atalanta, and Lazio) they’ve allowed 22.3 xG in 10 matches. They are the worst pressing team in Italy by PPDA and are second-to-last in box entries and final-third entries allowed.

Even though they’re going through a rough patch, Inter is still one of the best offenses in Italy. They’re averaging 1.79 npxG per 90 minutes. They’re also way overdue to score, as they’ve scored one goal in their past three Serie A matches off of 7.8 expected goals.

Inter does have a huge Champions League match against Benfica coming up, but they’re in a massive battle to stay inside the top four and their manager has been given three matches to save his job. So, they have to take this match seriously.

Salernitana does have some attacking talent. Former Reims and Villarreal striker Boulaye Dia has 10 goals on the season and former AC Milan striker Krzysztof Piątek has a 0.42 xG per 90 minutes scoring rate. They could threaten Inter’s defense, which will be without its best defender, Martin Skrinar.

I have 3.31 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on over three goals at +120.

Pick: Over 3 Goals (+120 at BetRivers)

La Liga

Projections

Almeria vs. Valenica

Almeria is the highest event team in Spain. They played a thrilling 2-2 draw with Celta Vigo over the weekend and their matches are averaging 2.93 xG per 90 minutes because their defense is terrible. Almeria is allowing 1.71 xG per 90 minutes, which is 18th in La Liga, and in their past seven matches they’ve allowed 15.4 expected goals. They have allowed the second most big scoring chances, the most box entries and the second-most crosses completed in their penalty area.

Allowing that many crosses is important because Valencia is really good at attacking in wide areas and have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area of anyone in La Liga. Valencia is also an offense due for positive regression, scoring 30 goals off of 35.3 xG. In their past nine matches, they’ve scored just four goals off of 11.5 expected.

Almeria is actually eighth in npxG per 90 minutes because they are a dangerous direct counter attacking team. They’re top five in final third to penalty box conversion rate and are top six in La Liga in xG per set piece. Valencia is bottom five in defending set pieces.

I have 3.18 goals projected for this match, so I think there is tremendous value on over 2.5 goals at +120.

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (+120 at Caesars)

Ligue 1

Projections

Lens vs. Strasbourg 

Strasbourg has been an electric offensive team lately. In their past six matches, they’ve created 10.5 expected goals and are coming off a thrilling 4-3 loss to Monaco.

The Lens defense has been really good this season, but they’ve also run ridiculously well. They’ve conceded 20 goals off 31.5 expected and in their past four matches they’ve allowed 4.3 expected goals, but have only conceded once.

It’s a mixture of two things. First, Brice Samba has been running really hot in net with a +5.9 post shot xG +/-. Secondly, they’ve conceded the fourth-most shots in France from inside the six-yard box. But of the 28 shots they’ve allowed, their opponents have only scored on eight.

Strasbourg’s defense has been terrible this season, allowing 1.67 xG per match. Strasbourg are also going to be without two of their main defenders for this match, which is not ideal going up a side that is top five in npxG and first in Ligue 1 in box entries.

Lens is well overdue to concede and with the improvements the Strasbourg offense has made, I like both teams to find the back of the net.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (+105) (BetRivers)