The MLS begins action today with Wednesday as Lionel Messi takes the field for Inter Miami vs. Real Salt Lake.
And for these festivities, plenty of sportsbooks are offering promotions — namely, for Messi to score tonight in the season opener.
The best promo available is with Fanatics Sportsbook, which is boosting Messi to score two goals to +500.
The fair value line is roughly +450, according to the Action Network's internal assessments. That gives this bet roughly 10% in EV, meaning you'd expect to make 10 cents for every dollar wagered over a very lengthy sample size. Of course, this is a single bet at +500. Variance indicates you'll win this bet only about 17% of the time. But winning 21% of your bets at this clip would result in a profit in the longterm.
Keep in mind that Fanatics is only available in certain states including Massachusetts, Maryland, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Vermont and West Virginia.
If you're not located in those states, the next best promotion is with DraftKings, which is offering Messi to score at +120. For reference, the regular, non-boosted line at DraftKings is -125. At FanDuel, for reference, this line is priced at -135.
This has positive expected value, too, but as with the first bet, variance will take hold here.
Miami has bolstered its roster substantially this offseason with Messi at the helm. Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba already signed on — two former, high-profile Barcelona teammates — late last season. And Luis Suarez has joined the fray for this upcoming campaign, as have three incredibly talented young Paraguayan and Argentinian players: Diego Gomez, Facundo Farias and Tomas Aviles.
The offense, at the end of the day, still flows through Messi. And +EV is +EV. These promotions are worthwhile should you want to bet on this MLS opener on Wednesday night — especially with nothing else but hockey going on at night.
