Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Odds
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | +360 |
| Real Madrid Odds | -140 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -1360 / +112u |
Let's dive into the Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds and make a prediction in our Champions League betting preview for Saturday, June 1.
The biggest game of the European club soccer season has arrived, with Borussia Dortmund taking on Real Madrid for the Champions League title.
While Real Madrid were expected to be a strong contender for the title, Borussia Dortmund have been a massive underdog throughout, going as high as 90-1 to win the event during October.
Real Madrid opened at +1000 to win the Champions League and have steadily dropped down throughout the year.
For more information on how bettors are attacking the contest, check out Patrick Everson's latest data at SportsHandle.
Here is how our soccer betting experts are analyzing the Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid Champions League final.
Borussia Dortmund
BJ Cunningham: Dortmund have gone on a crazy run defensively through the knockout stage, conceding five goals off of 11.9 expected. In their previous tie with PSG they held back to back clean sheets despite giving up over four expected goals.
While they are due for a lot of negative regression, most of those chances they conceded came when it was an even game state or when they were ahead. Variance gets evened out over a 38-match domestic season, but over a two leg cup tie, when teams get ahead, they tend to play extremely passive and allow their opponent to control the match and not leave themselves exposed.
For Dortmund to be successful in this match, they are going to have to do just that – play passively and sit in a defensive block because Real Madrid are the best transition offense in the world.
Dortmund have struggled defending in transition this season, as they finished the Bundesliga season 15th in final third to box entry conversion rate. They cannot make this match back and forth the way Real Madrid want it, but in the same token they’ve proven themselves not to be an effective low block team when they play passively considering how many chances they’ve conceded over this run.
Real Madrid
John Olsen: On their road to this final, Real Madrid once again demonstrated why they’ve won the Champions League a record 14 times, with the most recent five coming in the last 10 editions of the competition. It would not surprise me if their club badge was next to the word “inevitable” in the dictionary, as they once again recovered from a semifinal deficit in the dying moments of the second leg.
After overcoming Bayern Munich via a Joselu stoppage-time brace in the previous round, Los Blancos face another German outfit in the trophy decider. This is a stage they’re accustomed to, having won their last eight Champions League finals, and most signs point to them making it nine.
While there’s obviously a lot on the line already for a team in the last stage of a continental competition, the stakes are even higher for the Spanish champions. For one, they’ve only won a treble once in club history, so after setting the pace in La Liga with 95 points and claiming the Spanish Super Cup, there’s an opportunity to make this a campaign for the history books. Additionally, Toni Kroos and Nacho Fernandez are both playing their last match for the club, so they’ll want to go out on a high note, and their teammates will want to help deliver it.
Moving past the circumstances, Real Madrid are firmly the favorites to lift the trophy. They have more talent in basically every position across the pitch relative to Dortmund, and while Carlo Ancelotti isn’t the most tactically advanced, he knows how to get the most out of the squad at his disposal. He profiles his players excellently and puts them in roles where they can succeed. That’s why this front three — Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham — looks weird on paper but still works in practice. Los Blancos generally just play according to the flow of the match, and given the experience throughout the team, they know how to handle and adapt to basically every situation that could be thrown at them.
Unfortunately, Ancelotti will not have to deal with a couple of absentees. Aurelien Tchouameni picked up a foot injury in the second leg of that Bayern tie, and Andriy Lunin, who stepped up between the posts after Thibaut Courtois tore his ACL, will be out with an illness. The one benefit is that settles the controversy over who should start in goal, as Courtois returned a couple of weeks ago.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid
Predictions
Cunningham: Over 2.5 (-135)
This may be the most “game-state dependent” Champions League final in recent memory.
If Real Madrid go ahead in this match, there are going to be a lot of goals with Dortmund having to come out to try to press Real Madrid, which will leave space in behind for Vincius Jr, Bellingham and Rodrygo to operate. When playing with a lead this season, Madrid are averaging 2.70 xG per 90 minutes, so this one could get ugly for Dortmund pretty fast.
The irony for Dortmund is that they are best when they can play in transition because they are a very average build up team. However, Real Madrid are likely not going to press them the way PSG did, which is going to force Dortmund to break down Real Madrid’s defense from build up situations.
Cup finals are always tight and totals tend to get suppressed because of the magnitude of the moment, but one goal is going to completely change the complexion of this match and will make it more open with both teams excelling at playing in transition.
Olsen: Dortmund ML (+440)
It’s certainly not the likely outcome — I mean, come on, they’re facing Real Madrid in a Champions League final — but I do like the value on Dortmund’s moneyline at this price.
As I alluded to earlier, the Spanish champions are not that well-coached, they’re just comprised of the best players in the world playing in roles that suit them, and that does count for a lot. However, there are definitely structural weaknesses, especially in their transition defense, that can be exploited. After watching Real Madrid surrender more chances than they should have in all three of their knockout ties, there’s definitely scope for Dortmund to hit them on the break with the pace and ball-carrying of their wingers plus Niclas Fullkrug’s target-man capacity.
If this match sees extra time, I’d give Real Madrid a massive edge, which is why I like the moneyline more than the trophy-winning market at this angle. And, that means even if Dortmund do manage to score, they still have to keep the Real Madrid attack at bay, which is no easy task. Stranger things have happened though, and with the form Mats Hummels is in and Gregor Kobel’s shot-stopping ability, it is certainly possible.
