Borussia Dortmund at Wolfsburg Odds
| Dortmund | -120 |
| Wolfsburg | +290 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-164/+134) |
| Time: | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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Dortmund had no issues dispatching Revier rivals Schalke, 4-0, last Saturday after the two month layoff. BVB enters this match in second place, still just four points behind the league leaders Bayern with eight matches to play.
Despite its four-goal outburst, though, the underlying expected goals scored of just 1.7 suggests that both poor defensive miscues from Schalke and good finishing from BVB led to them overperforming their numbers. In fact, they have been outrunning their numbers for eight straight matches now. Dortmund have scored 18 goals in their last eight despite producing just 9.1 xGF.
Defensively, Lucien Favre’s side have improved of late, keeping five clean sheets in their last eight in the Bundesliga. Since playing a 3-4-3 formation instead of the 4-2-3-1 it featured early in the season, its xGA per 90 minutes dropped from 1.41 to 1.01.
The return of Emre Can should sure up Dortmund in the midfield, and while Jadon Sancho’s (14 goals) probable return to the lineup should bolster BVB’s attack, it’s unlikely he’ll play a full 90 minutes, especially if Dortmund grabs a lead.
Unlike Dortmund’s dominant victory, Wolfsburg needed a 90th-minute goal to top Augsburg in its return last Saturday, 2-1. Wout Weghorst leads Wolfsburg in attack, with 11 league goals in 2019-20. He returns from suspension after missing last week’s match, but the Wolfsburg attack as a whole is significantly lacking behind him. They rank just ninth (of 18) in goals, and eighth in xGF. Only one player besides Weghorst has scored more than three goals this season.
Led by USMNT center back John Brooks, it’s the Wolfsburg defense that has them the frontrunners for a sixth-place finish and a return to the Europa League. With just 12.29 xGA in 13 home matches this season, no team has been sturdier at home in the entire league. Their defense ranks middle of the pack in allowing passing in their own half of the field, but they simply don’t allow many quality chances. When you divide Wolfsburg’s total Post-Shot xGA by shots allowed per match, it ranks third-lowest in the league.
Wolfsburg’s ability to smother Dortmund’s attacks in the final third should turn this into a lower-scoring game. Inevitable shooting regression from BVB has to come eventually, so while I lost betting on Dortmund’s under 2.5 goals last week, I’m going back to it this week at better odds against the third-best defensive side in the Bundesliga.
The Bet: Under 2.5 (+125 or better)
