Bournemouth vs Brentford Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +100 |
| Brentford Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100o / -125u |
As we approach the conclusion of the 2023/24 Premier League season, there are quite a few matches with not much at stake other than the three Ps: pride, personal accolades and a position or two in the table.
This clash between Bournemouth and Brentford certainly falls under that criteria. Relegation isn't a concern for the Bees and Europe is more than likely out of the picture for the Cherries. The lack of a direct motivation to win for either side eliminates one possible betting angle, but there are still other ways to handicap this fixture.
Read on for my Bournemouth vs Brentford pick and prediction and Premier League match preview.
Bournemouth
Last time out, Andoni Iraola's side got swept aside by Arsenal at the Emirates by a final margin of 3-0. Despite the one-sided scoreline, there were still some positives for Bournemouth to take away from that one, and had a couple of refereeing decisions gone the other way, they might have had a chance at taking some points with them back to the south coast.
The Cherries haven't been on a bad run of form either, overcoming Brighton and Wolves and drawing with Manchester United in their last five fixtures.
The first thing that jumps out about Bournemouth is the man leading the line — Dominic Solanke. The English forward has accumulated 18 league goals on comparable xG. He also provides solid hold-up play in addition to the final product.
Iraola's team has been all about an aggressive pressing approach without the ball and attacking transition opportunities that arise from turnovers, and Solanke has been the biggest benefactor.
Recently, the Spanish coach has made a couple of personnel tweaks, replacing Neto for Mark Travers between the sticks and playing Enes Unal alongside Solanke instead of deploying an attacking midfielder behind his top goalscorer.
Lastly, with Milos Kerkez serving a ban for a red card against Wolves, Iraola has turned to Dango Outtara, a natural winger, to fill in at left back in the last two matches, but he could throw Lloyd Kelly in at that spot for a more defensive option.
Brentford
Based on xG, Manchester United and Brentford are having inverse campaigns.
The Bees are eighth in the expected goals table, while United are 15th, but in the actual standings, United are eighth while Brentford sit in 16th. In other words, if there's a side that's underperformed purely relative to chances created and faced, it's the West London club.
This hasn't happened inexplicably, however, with the Bees missing Ivan Toney for half the season and suffering numerous injuries in the back line. A drop in quality, especially at either end of the pitch, naturally leads to worse performance in those areas.
Regardless, Thomas Frank's side are still the same defensively stable, intelligent outfit that they've always been. Recently, Frank has switched from a 5-3-2 mid/deep block to a 4-5-1, which has meant deploying one less defender in favor of an additional attacker, but the ethos hasn't changed.
The Bees are still incredibly compact without the ball, they look for Toney's large frame as soon as they gain possession and have multiple runners for the English striker to find in transitions. They also try to take advantage of every set piece situation, posting the eighth-highest xG per set piece.
More impressively, they allow the second-lowest xG per set piece against. In short, they aren't an easy team to play against and they maximize their strengths.
Bournemouth vs Brentford
Prediction
In the reverse fixture, Brentford recorded 2.83 xT to Bournemouth's 1.03, and had just under 65% of the field tilt. Despite controlling territory and being way more threatening, they were only able to get a draw out of the match. Those metrics bode well for this contest, and on top of that the Bees aren't a great matchup for the Cherries, especially on the road.
Frank and co. will be more than willing to cede possession, forcing Bournemouth to cut them in settled play — which they aren't that capable of doing — and won't try to test Bournemouth's press, opting to fire long balls up to Toney. That greatly reduces the possibility of the Cherries creating chances from high turnovers.
Brentford have the set piece threat and potency in transition — especially with Toney healthy — to crack Bournemouth's defense, and they will be able to mitigate many of their opponents' strengths. Given the likely game dynamics, a moneyline of +270, just over 27% implied probability, feels too low to me, and as a result I like the value in that market.
