Bournemouth vs Everton Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +120 |
| Everton Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Bournemouth and Everton meet for a huge clash with great importance in the relegation fight.
Bournemouth's form has dipped a bit from the huge rise in November and December under Iraola. The Cherries are still well positioned in 13th place with a good shot at finishing in the top half of the table. They were routed in the previous meeting with Everton 3-0, so they will be out for revenge on Saturday.
Everton are in dire straights at the moment. The Toffees have not won a Premier League match since beating Burnley on December 16th. Another potential points deduction is looming, so Everton need to kick things into high gear right now to get out the relegation fight.
Bournemouth
These are the worst types of matchups for Bournemouth. The Cherries want to face an opponent that will build out of the back so they can unleash their hybrid press high up the pitch and force turnovers. Their team is not well-suited to play a team like Everton who will only send long balls up the pitch evading their press. If you don’t believe me look what happened in Bournemouth’s previous match with Luton Town. The Hatters constantly were opening Bournemouth’s defense right up by getting 2 v 1 overloads in wide areas in the first half and it’s the reason they scored all three goals. For the season, Bournemouth are 10th at crosses allowed into their penalty area and in addition to that, the Cherries have the third-worst aerial dual win percentage in the Premier League.
I don’t really see a tactical scenario where Bournemouth have an advantage in this match. If they want to get in a back in forth transition battle, Everton are way better defensively, or if Bournemouth decide to build out of the back and possess the ball at a high percentage then Everton can sit in their mid-block, where they have been elite this season, allowing only 1.23 npxG per 90 minutes.
Even if we go from November 11th to today, which is the day that Bournemouth started their ascension up the table after beating Newcastle at home, they have the fourth-best expected goal differential in the Premier League per 90 minutes at +0.67. Can you guess who is fifth? That’s right, Everton at +0.31, but they are supposedly trending downwards because they haven’t won a Premier League match in 2024.
Everton
The market has never been lower on Everton. The Toffees are winless in their last 10 Premier League matches and have a -13 goal differential in those matches. However, during that time frame, they only have a -2.2 expected goal differential. Take their last match against Manchester United for example. They gave up two penalties so the final xG tally of 2.7 is way higher than it should have been because Manchester United only took two shots from open play that had an xG rating over .10 and Everton outshot them 23 to 13.
That has been a theme for Everton this season – not getting the results they deserve. The Toffees have 0nly won eight Premier League matches this season. In the 20 other matches, they have won the expected goals battle 11 times, but somehow can't seem to find results.
Everton are a really good team out of possession because of the versatility they have. Sean Dyche has pretty consistently gone with a 4-4-1-1 formation and will sit in a mid-block where Everton are elite at denying space in between the lines as well as passing lanes for teams playing through the middle. They also are an incredibly physical team that can press high with great effectiveness because Everton have forced the third-most high turnovers, which is really astonishing for a team that is 12th in field tilt.
Everton on corners this season have been out of this world good. They have by far created the most expected goals at 13.3 and have the highest xG per corner in the Premier League.
Everton's set pieces have arguably been the biggest reason why they're still above the relegation zone despite their points deduction. For @AnalyticsFC, I broke down their corners and why they've had a ton of success with them this season https://t.co/YHMkfeUniA
— Mohamed (@MoeSquare) March 21, 2024
Bournemouth vs Everton
Prediction
Everton are so overdue for a positive result. They've had so many unlucky things happen to them over this winless stretch and are going to get some positive regression soon.
This is a pretty good matchup for them because of Bournemouth's lack of physicality and poor ability to win aerial duals. Additionally, Everton could decide to sit in their mid block and force Bournemouth to break them down, which is something that I am not sure Bournemouth are capable of doing considering Everton have only allowed 11 big scoring chances this season.
This is a great buy low spot on Everton, as well as a sell high spot on Bournemouth, so I like the value on the Toffees +0.5 at -130.
