Bournemouth vs Fulham Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +120 |
| Fulham Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
10 of the 20 teams in the English Premier League will play on Boxing Day in 2023, as the season reaches the halfway point during this match week. Bournemouth will host Fulham in one of the two simultaneous kickoffs in the traditional 3 p.m. local time slot, and the winner of this match will vault itself into the top half of the table.
Both were expected to be in the relegation mix prior to the season, and both have considerably surpassed expectations. The Cherries are the form team in the league right now, unbeaten in the league since a Nov. 4 6-1 loss to Manchester City. Andoni Iraola's job was seriously threatened at that point, but his system appears to have finally taken and Bournemouth has five wins and one draw in their last six league matches.
Fulham have lost consecutive league matches to Newcastle and Burnley without scoring a goal, and there's more regression looming for Marco Silva's side. The Cottagers have run well relative to their xG and other underlying numbers once again and the lack of a true striker in the side really limits the quality of the attack.
Read on for my Bournemouth vs Fulham prediction.
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Bournemouth
The Cherries' underlying numbers early in the season didn't look nearly as bad as the results were suggesting. Bournemouth struggled to learn the system of playing through opponent presses without making one or two extremely costly mistakes per match. As Bournemouth have had more time to gel, they've become considerably better at winning the ball high and limiting opponents from winning it high off them. The Cherries rank 12th in build-up completion rate allowed in the entire league. It's far from an elite press, but it's good enough to generate high turnovers and create chances from there.
Bournemouth are 13th in both attacking and defending xG per match, with penalties excluded. There's been some blowout defeats to the top sides, but the Cherries have thrived against opponents around them in the table. One key revelation for the attack has been the health and performance of Antoine Semenyo as a wide forward. He's producing 0.45 xG + xA per 90 on the right wing in 8.3 90s for the Cherries and has been extremely active in the pressing off the ball.
Combine this with an elite run of play and finishing from Dominic Solanke and you have a very viable attack. Solanke is producing 0.55 xG per 90 this year and has 11 goals for the club. The beauty of the Iraola system is how much they're able to produce from the other attacking options as well. Phillip Billing, Marcus Tavernier and even full back Diego Ouattara are producing at least 0.17 xG per 9o. Those numbers are all better than what Fulham is getting from their striker right now.
The Cherries get a lot of crosses into the box, they are efficient at turning final third possession into shots and they excel on set pieces. Bournemouth's attack has a ton more depth and reliable production than Fulham's right now, and it's why they should be a bigger favorite here.
Fulham
The problems with Fulham were on full display in the 2-0 defeat at home to Burnley. The Clarets are the third-worst team in the Premier League and have been quite mediocre defensively yet Fulham managed 19 shots totaling 1.1 expected goals. The Cottagers shouldn't have lost the match, but they also generated just one clear scoring chance in the entirety of the match. Even though Fulham are 10th in final third entries and seventh in crosses into the box, there's just not enough goal scoring in this squad right now.
The absence of Raul Jimenez due to suspension has also clearly negatively impacted them. The Cottagers managed just four shots and 0.2 xG combined from backups Rodrigo Muniz and Carlos Vinicius in 90 combined minutes. The leading xG producers for Fulham in the match against Burnley were right back Timothy Castagne and left winger Alex Iwobi. Both have had quality seasons as a whole, but the whole system feels very unsustainably fragile.
The Cottagers remain bottom five in xG produced, expected threat, shots per 90 and final third to box entry conversion rate. The defense isn't terrible overall and they should be able to again force some high turnovers and likely score one in this match as a result. But the Cherries have a clear offensive advantage in shot production.
Bournemouth vs Fulham
Prediction
My projections have Bournemouth right at even money to win this match. The Cherries are at home, while Fulham have been a bottom five team away from Craven Cottage in the league this year. Bournemouth have the better underlying numbers, have their top striker available and win this match about as often as it doesn't.
The Cherries at +110 or better on the moneyline is worth a bet for me in this Boxing Day fixture.
