Bournemouth vs Man United Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +145 |
| Man United Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225o / +175u |
Bournemouth will look to rebound from a stoppage time loss when it hosts Manchester United on Saturday.
The Cherries have had a resurgence over the second half of the season and now have a great shot to pick off Manchester United once again. Bournemouth is coming off a 2-1 stoppage time loss at Luton Town, but is only eight points behind Manchester United for sixth place, so a win here could vault them into the top half of the table.
Manchester United somehow got a 2-2 draw with Liverpool last Sunday. They were outshot 15-0 in the first half, but used some magic to grab a 2-1 lead before conceding a late penalty. Erik ten Hag's team is hanging on by thread through injuries and poor tactics and is well overdue for a blowout loss.
Let's break down the Premier League matchup in our Bournemouth vs. Man United preview and pick.
Bournemouth
The reason that Bournemouth has had a resurgence over the second half of the season is Andoni Iraola's tactics are starting to work. His hybrid press has been incredibly effective and it's something that takes a while to implement because it's basis is on using players' instincts to make the right decisions on when and when not to press.
First, their hybrid high press has been incredibly effective. Bournemouth puts a lot pressure on teams that want to build out of the back or play in transition because of how well its center backs have been defending long balls. Because of this, Bournemouth’s PPDA since Jan. 1 is 7.8, the third-best mark in the Premier League behind only Liverpool and Tottenham.
Additionally, when they regain the ball high up the pitch, they’ve been incredibly effective at scoring off their easy transition opportunities. They’ve scored seven goals off forced high turnovers, the third most in the league.
Bournemouth’s aggressive high press is what won them the match against Manchester United, 3-0, at Old Trafford back in December. In that match, they did a fantastic job generating those high turnovers, but most importantly, turning those high turnovers into dangerous chances, as two of their three goals came off high turnovers.
It also helps that they have a great striker in Dominic Solanke. He's Bournemouth's most important player right now, as he's scored 16 of its 44 goals and has a 0.57 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.
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Man United
Manchester United has been terrible defensively and Ten Hag doesn’t seem to want to change their structure any time soon. Bournemouth is likely going to play the ball long via goal kicks as opposed to building out of the back, which is a problem for United because its structure is not set up to win a lot of second balls or defend long passes at a high level.
Because Ten Hag wants his front line to press high but not have his fullbacks come up and aid in the press, it’s always going to leave a free man out wide for a simple long ball to be played to start an attack with acres of space. This is something Brentford did with regularity on its way to taking 30 shots and creating over three expected goals — and is something Bournemouth can easily do as well.
The other aspect is if you are going to play this style, you have to be good out of possession at winning second balls or work hard out of possession to recover a lot of those loose balls that are going to be the result of a long pass. Manchester United is seventh in ball recoveries, but a bigger issue is it is allowing the sixth-highest long ball completion percentage. In the previous meeting, Bournemouth attempted over 60 long passes, and even though it was only successful with 21 of them, it got itself into a position in which it was able to dominate the game out of possession.
Manchester United has to play in these up-and-down matches now because of its inability to control matches, which means it is conceding a massive amount of shots and chances. Since the beginning of February, Manchester United is allowing 2.43 xG per 90 minutes and 23.3 shots per match.
Bournemouth vs Man United
Prediction
Manchester United now gives up 20 shots once it enters the stadium; it's not a joke, it's their reality. The sad part is, Ten Hag is not willing to change his tactics because the Red Devils keep getting results and they have been half decent offensively.
This matchup though feels eerily similar to the one Manchester United recently played against Brentford, because Bournemouth is a team that is very versatile in its tactics, as it is able to play out of the back or send the ball long.
Bournemouth's 3-0 win over Manchester United in the previous meeting was no fluke, and the issues that existed for the Red Devils back in December still exist today — and may in fact have even gotten bigger.
I have Bournemouth projected for 2.1 goals for this match, so I like the value on its team total Over 1.5 at -125.
Pick: Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (-125 via BetRivers)
