Bournemouth vs Newcastle Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +400 |
| Newcastle Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +120 |
Bournemouth look to get out of the relegation zone when they host Newcastle at the Vitality Stadium.
They are in trouble and Andoni Iraola is running out of time. Bournemouth are currently sitting in the relegation zone with just six points to their name through 11 matches. They are coming off a thrashing at the hands of Manchester City, losing 6-1 at the Etihad. If they get blown out again, you have to wonder if they will change course during the international break.
Newcastle were beaten pretty badly in their last match on the road against Dortmund in the Champions League. The Magpies basically went to war with Arsenal last Saturday and even though they won 1-0, there were a lot casualties to injury and suspension. Newcastle desperately need the international break, but they are also in a heated race for the top four, so three points are absolutely crucial on Saturday.
Here is my Bournemouth vs Newcastle prediction.
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Bournemouth
Iraola is going to live and die by his hybrid high press that brought him so much success at Rayo Vallecano. His hybrid press is a mixture of man marking and zonal pressing with the purpose of exploiting the oppositions weaknesses in build up play. His Vallecano team last season was top five in PPDA, high turnovers and opponent build up completion percentage allowed. That has not translated well to the Premier League, because the reality is that teams in England overall are far better in build up play and playing through pressure than teams in La Liga.
The three stats that I mentioned above – PPDA, high turnovers turnovers and opponent build up completion percentage allowed – are not kind to the Cherries. Bournemouth are eighth in PPDA, ninth in high turnovers and 16th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed. The scariest stat maybe of all though for Bournemouth paints a picture of what happens when teams beat their first line of the press.
Bournemouth are dead last in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. That means 43.9% of the time an opponent enters the final third they are getting into Bournemouth's penalty area. For comparison, the worst team defensively in that same category right now is Nottingham Forest at 23.9%. That is really bad news when one of the best transition teams in the world is coming to town.
The offensive numbers are bad for Bournemouth right now, and it's because they are getting no production from anyone outside of Dominic Solanke. Solanke has created 4.3 of their 11.4 xG this season and he is the only regular starter that is getting over two shots per 90 minutes.
Newcastle
The lineup that Newcastle put out against Dortmund on Tuesday was a shell of what the team normally looks like. Somehow, it's going to look worse on Saturday.
At the time of writing, Dan Burn, Bruno Guimarães, Sven Botman, and Alexander Isak are going to miss this match, along with Sandor Tonali and Harvey Barnes, who are out for an extended period of time. On top of that, Callum Wilson is also questionable, so Newcastle may not have a true striker up top.
Newcastle are feeling the effects of the fixture congestion, having to play sometimes three matches in a seven day time span because of their Champions League responsibilities. Eddie Howe's side was masterful last season because of their high press and how physical and grueling they were to play against.
Because of all of the injuries, Newcastle can't high press like they want to because they are throughly exhausted. So, to combat that, Howe has changed his pressing structure from a 4-3-3 to a 4-5-1 mid block. It allows Newcastle to still try and win the ball off their opponents, but it also gives them a bit of a rest out of possession rather than just all out pressing all the time. The results have not been pretty given the problems they gave Manchester United and Arsenal's build up play in their recent matches.
Bournemouth are not a direct transitional team. They will try to build out of the back, which could give Newcastle a great opportunity to force some turnovers out of their mid block and create some transitional opportunities.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Prediction
Newcastle are a mess right now with injuries and suspension, but even with that being said, this is about as good of a matchup as it gets in the Premier League for the Magpies. Bournemouth are going to try and press Newcastle relentlessly from the jump. This will create a high paced, transition-based match, which is exactly how Newcastle want to play.
The Magpies tend to struggle when teams let them have the ball, play in a low block and slow the pace of the match down. That is the exact opposite of how Bournemouth want to play. So, even though they are limited with their personnel, Newcastle should be able to create a ton of chances in this match.
These are also the matches where Newcastle thrive. Since the start of last season, Newcastle have a +1.21 xGD per 90 minutes against teams in the bottom half of the table.
I have 3.63 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
