Bournemouth look to rebound from a loss to Liverpool when they host Southampton.
The Cherries have been really unlucky not to higher up in the table to begin this season. They have played a really tough schedule, so this will be their first favorable matchup and just so happens to be a South Coast derby. Their offense has been consistently creating high quality chances and should continue to do so against one of the worst defenses in the Premier League.
It's been a real struggle for Southampton to begin the season, as they have only one point through their first five matches. They were incredibly unlucky in their last match against Ipswich, conceding a deflection goal in the 95th minute. Russell Martin has received a lot of criticism for his style of play and it's going to be put to the test on Monday.
Here is my Bournemouth vs. Southampton prediction.
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Bournemouth Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +100 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | -170 |
| Southampton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -170 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | +425 |
- Bournemouth vs. Southampton moneyline odds: Bournemouth -170, Southampton +425, Draw +340
- Bournemouth vs. Southampton over/under: 2.5 goals (over -200, under +162)
- Bournemouth vs. Southampton pick: Bournemouth ML
I am backing Bournemouth ML in S0uthampton vs. Bournemouth.
Bournemouth Preview
Bournemouth have played one of the toughest schedules so far having faced Chelsea, Newcastle and Liverpool. What has been good for the Cherries is their offense. It doesn't matter the opponent, they are consistently creating high quality chances, as they're averaging a whopping 1.73 xG per 90 minutes. That is incredibly impressive considering they lost their star striker Dominic Solanke late in the transfer window.
One of the main reason for that has been their press. Adoni Iroala's philosophy is always press teams high and force them to one side of the pitch to use the sideline as another defender. Really the only way to beat it is to be effective with switch balls to the other side of the pitch or play very direct and win second balls. Southampton can do neither of those things as they're consistently relying on short passes to beat an opponent's press. Bournemouth have consistently been able to utilize that press to force high turnovers, which has created easy transition opportunities and in turn high quality chances.
The other aspect of Bournemouth has been their ability to also be a team that can build out of the back and play through an opponent's press. You lower your ceiling if you are playing extremely direct and not able to control matches. They consistently dominated teams in the lower half of the table last season because of that ability to play out of the back while also dominating with their press.
Southampton Preview
Southampton’s offense actually hasn’t been too bad this season. Outside of their one match against Nottingham Forest they have created over one expected goal in the other four. However, this will be the best pressing team they have faced so far this season. Bournemouth’s high press has been really good this season and that’s despite not playing a lot of build up teams. They’re forcing their opponents to lose possession in dangerous areas on average 31.6 times per 90 minutes (per markstats), which is by far the best mark in the Premier League.
Southampton’s build up is getting better, but it’s easy to look good against a team like Ipswich. The bigger questions with Southampton are in their ability to defend in transition. They haven't really been able to do that at all this season this season, as they've conceded six fast break shots, which is the fourth-most in the Premier League. They are also averaging losing the ball in dangerous areas 24.6 times per 90 minutes, so their build up could really do them in here against Bournemouth.
One of the biggest problems for Southampton defensively without a doubt has been set pieces. They have conceded five goals and 3.54 expected goals off of them in only five matches, which is absolutely terrible. They are also trying to press opponents high, which hasn't been effective and is leaving their backline exposed, so Southampton have all sorts of issues right now.
Bournemouth vs Southampton Prediction
This is about as good of a matchup as you can ask for if you are Bournemouth. Southampton are going to consistently try to build out of the back and play right into Bournemouth's press. It's not in Russell Martin's DNA to play direct balls over the top of the press and even if they do, Bournemouth have a big physical advantage, as Southampton's attackers are small and not able to consistently win aerial duels.
There are so many issues with Southampton right now and most of them are defensively with their inability to defend in transition and defend set pieces, so Bournemouth should be able to flourish offensively.
Bournemouth were incredible at home last season once they got their season turned around. In the final 13 home matches they only lost three matches (Liverpool, Manchester City and Brentford) and had a +9.1 xGD. They've won the xG battle in both of their home matches this season, so I love the value on them on the moneyline at -165.
Pick: Bournemouth ML (-165 via Caesars)
How to Watch Premier League: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England |
| Date: | Monday, September 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | USA Network / YouTube TV, Fubo |
