Copa American Final: Brazil vs. Peru Betting Odds
Sunday, July 7 at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Telemundo
- To Win Copa America: Brazil -750, Peru +500
- Brazil Moneyline: -325
- Peru Moneyline: +1100
- Draw: +400
- Spread: Brazil -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-120)
Brazil pummeled Peru, 5-0, in their group match on June 22, but don't expect another shellacking on Sunday.
In that first meeting a few weeks ago, Brazil opened -275 on the moneyline and closed -400 behind a heap of public and sharp action. This time around, oddsmakers basically split the difference and opened Brazil at -350.
To no surprise, Brazil are rightfully getting nearly 80% of bets around the market to beat Peru in regulation. They're also getting more than 75% of tickets to cover the -1.5 goal-line, so public bettors are expecting another comfortable victory.
However, most of the market has recently adjusted the other way with line movement toward Peru on both the spread and moneyline.
As of Friday morning, Brazil's consensus odds have dropped from -350 to -330, and some respected sportsbooks even offer them as low as -315. Do keep in mind there are still plenty of square 'books listing Brazil in the -370 range since they're begging for Peru action.
Upsets have been hard to come by during the 2019 Copa America with only two underdogs winning outright: Peru over Chile in the semifinal as +400 underdogs and Colombia over Argentina in the first group match as +250 underdogs.
Favorites have won 12-of-24 matches during the tournament while draws have been the pure moneymaker, hitting nine times for an overall profit of +18.75 units.
Brazil are riding a 14-match unbeaten streak and have been the clear favorites throughout to lift the trophy. They're solid defensively with a top goalkeeper (Alisson), strong in the midfield, capable goal-scorers and have coped nicely without Neymar.
And just how good is Alisson? He's the first goalkeeper to be awarded the Golden Glove in three different competitions during the same season: Premier League (Liverpool), Champions League (Liverpool) and Copa America (Brazil).
With the likes of Casemiro, Philippe Coutinho, Roberto Firmino and Gabriel Jesus, there's no denying the overall talent on the roster. Mix in the fact that players like Dani Alves are playing out of their minds with the boost of home-field advantage and it's a recipe for success.
36-year-old Dani Alves drops one, goes over another, dummies the third and then no-look passes in the build-up to Brazil's first goal 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YJ5WzAOfV4
— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) July 3, 2019
The final will be played at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.
Peru have all but avenged their disappointing 2018 World Cup showing by reaching the 2019 Copa America final. It's their first Copa final since 1975 when they defeated Colombia, 1-0.
The team can best be described as tenacious and cohesive, although the lack of finishing chances has been a hinderance. Despite scoring three goals apiece against Bolivia and Chile, they were shutout on three separate occasions against Brazil, Uruguay and Venezuela.
As a holder of a Peru 25-1 futures ticket, I'd planned on hedging if they reached the final but options are limited. The odds of Brazil currently hoisting the trophy are so high that waiting for a live, in-game line might be the best bet instead.
Brazil vs. Peru Prop Bets
- Brazil’s Gabriel Jesus is the +300 favorite to score the first goal of the game, followed by fellow Brazilians Firmino (+400), Richarlison (+400) and Coutinho (+450).
- Both Teams to Score Odds: Yes +145, No -175
- Odds to Keep a Clean Sheet: Brazil -165, Peru +550
- Penalty Kick Awarded: Yes +190, No -240
- Red Card Given: Yes +260, No -350
- The most likely scorelines in regulation are Brazil 1-0, Brazil 2-0, Brazil 3-0 and Brazil 2-1.
