Brazil vs Colombia Preview: Brazil – Colombia Odds, Picks & Predictions

Brazil vs Colombia Odds, Brazil – Colombia Picks

Brazil and Colombia meet for a massive match to decide the winner of Group D.

Brazil got things back on track with a 4-1 beat down of Paraguay where they showed how good their attack can be. They ended up creating 3.8 expected goals and a poised in this match to do some real damage. First place in Group D is crucial with Panama now being the favorite to finish second in Group C. So, Brazil need to win here against Colombia to achieve that.

Colombia notched their second win of the tournament by beating Costa Rica 3-0 to put them in the driver's seat in Group D. They only need a draw to finish atop the group and beat Brazil 2-1 in World Cup Qualifying, so they will be very confident heading into this match.

Brazil Picks

Paraguay did try to press Brazil at times throughout the match, which is what Colombia are going to do and they were really good at playing through that pressure to create transition opportunities. Then when they were facing Paraguay’s passive defensive structure, they didn’t just resort to a bunch of crosses, but rather they played really quick and effective one touch passes, which is how they scored their first goal.

It goes without saying, but Brazil have the most talent of anyone in this tournament. They are playing much more like Real Madrid, which suits the players they have much better. They are maybe the most dangerous team in the world once they get a lead. They will sit back in a 4-4-2 and let three of the best transition attackers in the world in Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo and Raphinha punish the opposing defense time and time again.

What has been underrated about Brazil not only at this tournament, but for a long time, has been their defense. They have only allowed 0.9 expected goals so far this tournament and since the September of 2021, they are only allowing 0.55 xG per 90 minutes and only two teams have created over one expected goal against them.

Colombia Picks

Colombia only need a draw from this match and they have won the group. However, sitting back in a passive defensive structure completely goes against their style of play. They were second in PPDA during World Cup Qualifying and have forced 24 high recoveries through their first two matches. However, what is concerning is that they aren’t the best team playing through pressure. They allowed 15 high recoveries against Paraguay who by nature are a very passive team, so Brazil will be well poised to press them and will do so effectively because they were best in PPDA during World Cup Qualifying.

Colombia are a transition-based team. They have pace and incredible ball carriers all over the pitch, but because they play such a high paced and intense style, they often leave themselves very vulnerable to direct attacks. Colombia allowed the fourth-most counterattacking shots during World Cup Qualifying and they were near the bottom in duel win rate, so if they leave space for Brazil, they’re going to get punished.

The other problem for them is because they are a high pressing team by nature, and sitting in a low block is not something they are used to doing. As Brazil showed against Paraguay, they are incredibly capable at playing through low blocks and creating a high number of chances.

Brazil vs Colombia

Prediction

Colombia beat Brazil 2-1 in World Cup Qualifying, but that was a completely different Brazil team that was playing a style that played right into Colombia’s high press. Now, they are playing a much more direct style that really suits them in a match like this.

Brazil playing a more direct style is going to create a very back and forth match, which suits Colombia, but the problem is Brazil are a much better transition team with a lot more talent.

If Colombia decide to sit deep, they are not used to playing that type of defensive structure, especially against one of the best technical sides in the world.

I have Brazil projected at -248, so I think there is a ton of value on them at -120.

Pick: Brazil ML (-120 via DraftKings) 

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