Brentford vs Crystal Palace Prediction
| Brentford Odds | +140 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Brentford host Crystal Palace in a London Derby with both teams looking to build off of last season.
Brentford have firmly established themselves in the Premier League and even after a rough season in 2023-24 are looking to achieve a top half finish. The Bees have held onto all of their key players so far and looked to be in the position they were two years ago.
Crystal Palace were one of the darlings of the back end of the Premier League season last year. Oliver Glasner has revitalized South London and has the Eagles poised to gate crash into the top eight. Despite losing Michael Olise, the Eagles have held onto all of their other key players and have made some good signing to bolster the depth of their squad. However, the GTech Community Stadium is an incredibly difficult place to get a result.
Let's dive into Brentford vs Crystal Palace.
Brentford Picks
Brentford went through a horrible stretch of injuries and just downright bad luck last season. There was a point in the season where they only picked up nine points over a 18-match stretch, but still finished with 39 points. Their underyling metrics though were that of a mid-table club. They finished with 52.3 expected points and +2.2 expected goal differential on the season, so they are due for a lot of positive regression coming into this season.
Thomas Frank is still at the helm and has firmly solidified Brentford as one of the best defensive blocks in the Premier League. They will let their opponents walk into their final third, but once they get there they don't let you into the penalty area because they close off the center of the pitch in their 5-3-2 defensive shape and do an outstanding job at defending crosses.
Brentford didn't have Ivan Toney available for half of the season and Bryan Mbuemo missed a significant portion due to injury as well. Having both of them healthy and available is so crucial to Brentford's ability to attack in transition as those two combined last season for a 0.82 xG per 90 minutes. With Palace likely controlling a majority of the possession, those two will be key when Brentford get those transition moments.
Crystal Palace Picks
Oliver Glasner's Crystal Palace were breathtaking to watch last season. His 3-4-3 that turned into 3-2-5 in possession with Olise and Eze dropping to form a box midfield annihilated opponents that weren't good at defending the middle of the pitch. Add in the ability on Jean-Philippe Mateta as a hold up striker that can also make runs off the opponents back line made them incredibly difficult to defend.
From his appointment on February 20th until the end of the season, Glasner’s Crystal Palace had the fifth-best expected goal differential in the Premier League at +6.3 in 13 matches. Losing Michael Olise in the summer does hurt because he was by far their best offensive player, but bringing in Ismaila Sarr is a great signing. He has loads of talent as an attack but has never been in a stable environment from his four seasons at Watford where new managers were cycling in every few months to Marseille last year where had three different managers in one season.
Crystal Palace are about as solid as they come across their back line as well with one of the best center back pairings in the Premier League in Marc Geuhi and Joachim Andersen, so Palace are in as good of a position as anybody in the middle of the table.
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Prediction
Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have ended in 1-1 draw and that is kind where this match is heading as well. Palace are going to control a majority of the possession and try and set up their box midfield, but Brentford are one of the most difficult teams to play through, ranking fourth in final third to box entry conversion rate last season.
One aspect of Brentford that does give them a pretty big advantage is crosses. They led the Premier League last season in crosses into the penalty area, while Crystal Palace allowed the most. Crystal Palace also really struggled defending set pieces, allowing the fourth-highest xG per set piece, while Brentford are always on of the best set piece offenses.
The downside for Brentford here is Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey, their two starting fullbacks, are still making their way back from injury, which leaves them vulnerable in the wide areas.
So, I think this match is going to play out pretty evenly and I like the value on the draw at +245.
