Brentford vs Everton Odds
| Brentford Odds | -134 |
| Everton Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
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Brentford look to rebound from their loss to Newcastle when they host a desperate Everton squad.
The Bees suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday, losing 1-0 to Newcastle at St. James' Park. Thomas Frank's side had been kind of stagnant in terms of results, but the offensive underlying number have been incredibly impressive and they have a good opportunity to get all three points at home.
Sean Dyche's side has been unlucky to be where they are in the table. Everton have just one point through their first five matches and are once again in the relegation fight. The story of their season has been bad finishing, but they have made some signings, most notably adding Beto from Udinese.
Let's get into this interesting Brentford vs Everton contest.
Brentford
The Bees have created 10.2 xG through their first five matches and their transitional attacks have been incredibly deadly. They are number one in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate, just showing how deadly they’ve been in transition. Brentford have played two teams so far that will press them with the intensity Everton are going to: Tottenham and Bournemouth.
It was the first match of the season and they were awarded a penalty, but Brentford created over 2 xG against Tottenham and then against Bournemouth had 23 box entries, 2.9 xG and 21 shots. Brentford have also created the most xG off of set pieces so far, which is not a big surprise considering they were the most efficient set piece offense last year.
The Bees are dealing with some injuries across their backline – most notably Rico Henry – who is a key to their 3-5-2 playing in the left win gback position. He currently leads the team in passes into the penalty area and is third in progressive passes. Most importantly though, when Brentford are out of possession he's the wide defender in their back five and is an above average defender.
Everton
Sean Dyche's side was very passive against Arsenal on Sunday, but that had more to do with Arsenal's elite buildup play and Everton not wanting to give them space in behind. The thing is, Everton's pressing really hasn't been that effective this season.
Everton are pressing high and they have forced the fourth-most high turnovers, but they are allowing the fifth-highest pass completion percentage, only have a PPDA of 14.0 and are 16th in build up completion percentage allowed. They also have now conceded over 1 xG in every single match this season.
The Toffees are averaging 1.50 npxG through five matches and have been dangerous in wide areas. It’s very difficult to play through the middle of the pitch on Brentford, so it's good that they’ve attempted the third-most crosses. One of the underrated signings of the summer was Everton bringing over Beto from Udinese. He's an unreal transition threat and one of the best aerial threats across Europe's top five leagues. Pairing him alongside Dominic Calvert-Lewin could prove to be the striking partnership that Everton have always been searching for.
Brentford vs Everton
Pick & Prediction
I think this match can play out very similarly to the Brentford vs Bournemouth match from a couple weeks back.
In that match, Bournemouth tried to press high, Brentford played the ball long and it ended up being an end-to-end style match with both teams playing primarily in transition.
Brentford are a compact low block and very difficult to play through, so Everton's only two options are to press them high and try to create transitional moments similar to what Bournemouth did or get the ball out in wide areas and try to beat them via crosses.
I have 2.9 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
