Brentford vs Fulham Odds
| Brentford Odds | +110 |
| Fulham Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Luton Town's loss at Wolves on Saturday secured Brentford's safety in the Premier League for yet another season. Thomas Frank's side has underperformed market expectations for the majority of the year, but Brentford were never in real danger of relegation back to the Championship and they'll stay in the PL for a fourth consecutive season. Fulham entered the year with the worst odds of any non-newly promoted team to avoid relegation, but the Cottagers have been comfortably mid table for most of the season as well and have an outside chance of finishing in the top half.
With three matches to go in the season, this is a matchup where neither side has much to play for and the variance in these kinds of matches tend to increase. The totals tend to rise considerably in matches with little on the line as both teams look toward the holiday break coming when the season concludes on May 19.
There are questions of how much the scoring environment will actually increase in the final weeks this season given that the goal environment is already north of three goals per match on average. How much higher can the Premier League goal environment rise? I'm staying away from the total here but Brentford actually have the better underlying metrics and are plus money at home, which makes them an appetizing bet on Saturday.
Let's get into my Brentford vs Fulham prediction.
Brentford
No team in the Premier League has more underperformed their underlying numbers than Brentford this season. It's been an issue at both ends of the pitch as the Bees have a +4.7 expected goal differential and a -8 actual goal difference. The Bees have conceded 10 extra goals over expected, the majority of the underperformance coming thanks to a poor shot stopping season from Brentford goalkeeper Mark Flekken.
Brentford concede the second-longest average shot distance and the fifth-lowest average xG per shot and yet they've underperformed. 7.5 of the 10 goals are as a direct result of Flekken's poor shot stopping and the rest is elite opponent finishing. One key weakness for Brentford this season has been their defending of crosses and ball stopping in wide areas due to key injuries to their full backs.
That is Fulham's biggest advantage in this matchup given just how much Fulham's attack is dependent upon crosses from wide. The Cottagers and Bees are both top three in the league in crossing, but Fulham are a considerably better defensive team at preventing the crosses into the penalty area.
Brentford's attack has also wildly run bad from finishing variance perspective this season. The Bees have the lowest average shot distance and the second-best xG per shot yet they have one of the worst finishing rates in the league. The market is pricing these two teams as even but Brentford would be well above them in the table.
Fulham
The emergence of Rodrigo Muniz has vaulted Fulham to right around league average in the second half of the season. The Cottagers struggled mightily for goals in January when Alex Iwobi was away at AFCON and Muniz was bedding into the first team as a consistent first team striker. Since February began, Fulham have actually posted a positive expected goal differential.
Muniz is averaging 4.37 shots per match, has 8.7 total xG and nine goals as the top choice. For most of the first half of the season, Fulham was the least efficient team in the PL at turning final third possession into box entries and shots. Those numbers have steadily improved as Muniz has become a regular.
The problems for Marco Silva's side have come in defending away from home. They're allowing nearly two expected goals per match away from Craven Cottage in the league and they've conceded 35 total goals in 17 away league matches.
Fulham have solid ball progression and field tilt allowed numbers, but they concede a ton of big scoring chances when the press does get broken open. This is a problem against a Brentford team that won't want a ton of possession but will be efficient when they have the ball and create a handful of big scoring chances.
Brentford vs Fulham
Prediction
If I use only the second half data from this season, then this line is correct with Brentford around +110 on the three-way moneyline. If you incorporate the entire season's worth of data, then Brentford are undervalued and should be closer to -110 to win this match.
Neither team has much to play for and while Fulham would be considered the in-form team entering the match, Brentford's advantage on set pieces and being at home is too much to pass up plus money on this Premier League match.
