Brentford vs Liverpool Odds
| Brentford Odds | +400 |
| Liverpool Odds | -163 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -210 / +160 |
With 14 matches remaining in the Premier League season, Liverpool are clinging to a two-point lead at the top of the table. Their matchup in the early window kickoff on Saturday is one of the toughest away fixtures remaining on their schedule as they visit Brentford in West London. The Reds have been dominant at Anfield but their away performances have shown enough cracks to make them a bit vulnerable against a Brentford side that is getting healthier.
The Bees went toe-to-toe with both Manchester City and Spurs in the last four matches, scoring first in both and eventually losing both. Brentford also beat Nottingham Forest and Wolves to stabilize their form, after a dire run that saw them win one match out of 10 in all competitions. The return of Ivan Toney has bolstered the attack and led to them scoring eight goals in four matches.
With more reinforcements arriving, the Bees are live to pull off an upset on Saturday to kickoff match week 25.
Read on for my Brentford vs Liverpool prediction.
Brentford
Not only is Toney back in the lineup, but Brentford will have Yoanne Wissa and Frank Onyeka back from the Africa Cup of Nations for this match. Both went deep in the tournament with their respective countries and were key losses in attacking and midfield areas. Wissa had produced 2.5 shots per 90, 0.48 xG + xA per 90 and is an excellent partner to potentially combine with Toney in the attacking two. If Thomas Frank opts to stick with Neal Maupay as a starter instead, the Bees will then have some much needed second half attacking depth.
Brentford have really struggled defensively in the last two months and the absence of Onyeka in the midfield is a major contributor to that. He's one of the best and most active defenders in midfield out of possession. Onyeka offers very little passing range but he's a key in this matchup where Liverpool will have the overwhelming majority of the possession. Onyeka averages nearly four tackles plus interceptions per match this season.
The Bees have traditionally profiled well as an underdog because of how effective their defend and counter approach is. The decline in shot stopping from Mark Flekken has hurt their goal prevention and the injuries in defense had led to them being just average. The Bees are fifth in overall xG conceded but have conceded 39 goals from 32.5 xGA.
The market is still underrating Brentford's attack — as it has for their entire time in the Premier League — because they have a low number of box entries and possession. They don't tilt the field often on their opponents, but the Bees are still eighth in xG per 90, eighth in big scoring chances and third-most efficient at turning final third possession into box touches and shots. Brentford is producing more than 1.5 xG this season and Liverpool's defense hasn't been nearly as dominant away from Anfield.
Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp said in his Friday presser that Mo Salah trained and is fully fit and available for selection. Given his extended absence and the looming EFL Cup final against Chelsea, I wouldn't expect to see a full 90 minutes from Salah on Saturday. Ibrahima Konate will return to the Liverpool backline, but goalkeeper Alisson is expected to miss this match as well as right back Trent Alexander-Arnold.
The Reds were quite shaky at the back in their eventual 3-1 win at home to Burnley, conceding more than one expected goal to a bottom three attack in the PL. We've seen the Reds defense concede at least 0.8 xGA in every PL away match this season. The question is whether or not the attack can be explosive enough against a league average to warrant laying a full goal on the road.
There are a few areas where Liverpool aren't elite defensively, and it's the same flaws where Brentford exploited them last season when the Bees beat Liverpool at home. Brentford excel at creating big scoring chances and the Reds rank just 10th in total big scoring chances conceded. The Bees are always great on set pieces and the Reds are 15th in xGA per set piece allowed.
The first meeting between these two teams is instructive to what you may expect for the rematch. Brentford faced a makeshift Liverpool midfield but managed 1.6 xG and 16 total shots. Even with the Reds controlling 60% of the ball at home, they had just a 80% pass completion rate, which shows that Brentford were able to hassle the Reds more than most average teams.
Brentford vs Liverpool
Prediction
The Bees scored first in each of their last three matches, all as an underdog. The out of possession defense trying to hold leads hasn't been nearly as good — mainly because of Flekken — this season, but the underlying process numbers suggest that Brentford will not at all be overmatched hosting Liverpool.
We've seen the Bees play almost even at home against Arsenal earlier this year when close to fully fit and now Brentford have multiple key players coming back just in time to endanger Liverpool's lead at the top of the Premier League table.
Liverpool are only around a 0.77 expected goal favorite for me in this match. With Alisson likely out as well, I'd bet Brentford +1 at -120 or better and sprinkle some first half moneyline.
