Brentford vs Man United Odds
| Brentford Odds | +200 |
| Man United Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Man United continue their fight for a Champions League spot when they travel to London to take on Brentford.
The Bees are going through a really bad spell at the moment, but the underlying data suggests that they are well overdue for a positive result. They are finally starting to get some guys healthy as well with Bryan Mbuemo returning to the lineup, which will be the first time this season that Mbuemo and Ivan Toney will be starting up top. Brentford rocked Manchester United to their core last season in this fixture winning 4-0 and will be looking to do the same on Saturday.
Manchester United are somehow not only challenging for a Champions League spot, but they are also into the FA Cup semifinals after beating Liverpool in extra time before the international break. The Red Devils are a completely flawed team tactically that have rode their luck for far too long, so this is one of those spots where it could all crash and burn.
Brentford
Brentford have gone through this really bad spell and it continued before the international break when they picked up a red card inside the first 10 minutes against Burnley. To highlight just how unlucky the Bees have been, they have lost 12 of their last 15 matches and have a -16 goal differential, but only a -8.3 expected goal differential. In addition to that, they have played Manchester City twice, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Brighton and Wolves twice.
This is also about to be a much different Brentford team than the last one that faced Manchester United because not only is Ivan Toney available, but Bryan Mbuemo, who has missed the last 13 matches, is now available. That means for the first time Brentford will have their first choice front two strikers available. Mbuemo is so important to this Brentford team because of his pace and finishing ability in transition. So far this season he has a 0.79 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League.
Brentford can also have a good advantage here on set pieces. The Bees have created the second-most expected goals off of set pieces this season, while Manchester United have been very average at defending them this year.
Manchester United have also been terrible away from Old Trafford this season, having a -6.9 xGD, while Brentford have a +1.7 xGD at home. Brentford even has a better expected goal differential overall for the season than Manchester United.
Man United
How Manchester United are still in the race for a Champions League spot is completely confounding because this team should be in the middle of the table. Overall for the season, Manchester United have a -4.2 xGD and in eight of their 15 Premier League wins they have lost the expected goals battle.
These are the types of matchups that are terrible for them as well. The reason being is Manchester United have been terrible is because their press is tactically flawed. What tends to happen is the fullbacks will not push high up the pitch to aid in the press, which often leaves a free man for an easy outlet pass and then there is acres of space for teams to run at them in transition. That is not the type of thing you want to do against Brentford because the Bees love to play in transition.
The other problem with Manchester United is that, even though they want to get into a up and down transitional type of match, what happens if Brentford decides to sit in a low block and dare United to break them down? Because Manchester United aren't good enough in these types of scenarios. Against Everton they created less than one expected goal from open play. The same thing was true against Nottingham Forest, and twice against West Ham.
Brentford vs Man United
Prediction
What is really crazy is the perception of both of these teams compared to the underlying data. Brentford are relegation, while Manchester United is on the cusp of getting back into the Champions League. In totality for the season. Brentford have a better expected goal differential (-0.2) than Manchester United (-4.2).
The problem with Manchester United continuing to get into back and forth matches is they have no ball stopping in the midfield and when the press doesn't hit home, there are acres of space for teams to run in transition. Brentford are exactly the team you do not want to do that to, especially now that they have their best transition attacker Mbuemo back in the lineup.
Manchester United have also conceded the most set piece opportunities of anyone in the Premier League, which is an extremely dangerous game to play against Brentford who have consistently been a top five set piece offense ever since they got promoted.
I have Brentford projected as a home favorite, so I love the value on the Bees +0.5 at -145.
