Wolves vs Brentford Odds
| Wolves Odds | +240 |
| Brentford Odds | +115 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -105 / -125 |
Brentford look to get their season back on track when they host Wolves in a bottom of the table clash.
The Bees have fallen further and further down the table, currently sitting 1in 4th place, and are starting to get pulled into the relegation fight. Brentford have sustained some injuries to key player, but the underlying numbers are still really encouraging, so don't be surprised if they make a second half surge.
Wolves are coming off a massive 2-1 win over Chelsea on Christmas Eve, as Gary O'Neill has his team headed in the right direction. However, there has been a pretty drastic difference in Wolves' performances at home versus on the road. Trying to get points at the Brentford Community Stadium is always challenging for any club, so it will be a difficult test for Wolves.
Here's how I'm betting Brentford vs Wolves.
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Brentford
Brentford had the weekend off because of their match with Manchester City being postponed due to Manchester City’s involvement in the Club World Cup. The time off was big for Brentford to get some of their guys healthy and the biggest one was Mathias Jansen, who is pivotal to Brentford’s success because he is the one who takes all of their free kicks. For a team like Brentford, that puts a big reliance on being efficient on set pieces, his absence is noticeable.
The Bees are not just your typical low block and counter type team like you see when they are taking points off teams at the top of the table. When they are in situations like this against teams where they are going to control more possession, the Bees will switch to a 4-3-3 to provide them with more attacking options. It’s really been a benefit because they have a +7.8 expected goal differential when playing out their 4-3-3 this season.
What makes Brentford such a difficult team to play against is how good they are out of possession. Brentford are a very similar team to that of Everton, if they feel they can press high and disrupt build up play, they will do it effectively, but if they don't feel they can they will sit in a 5-3-2 and make it incredibly difficult for opponents to play through them they will.
The Bees are very active in their defensive block because they have the sixth-best PPDA in the Premier League and are third in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, which has translated to them only allowing 1.24 npxG per 90 minutes, which is fifth-best in the Premier League.
Wolves
Wolves have had some great results this season, beating Manchester City, Tottenham and Chelsea, but all of those results came at home. Away from this season things have been a different story. Wolves have a -5.0 xGD away from the Molineux and have lost their last four matches away from home.
You will not find a team that works harder off the ball than Wolves right now. O’Neill has them set up to press out of a mid-block and their pressing numbers are around the Premier League average, but they lead the Premier League in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and they have been incredibly successful winning ground duels in the middle of the pitch.
There are a couple of questions though with the Wolves attack. First off, they are set up to be a transition based team, but actually are they good in transition? Wolves are 19th in final third to box entry conversion rate, meaning only 28.4% of the time are they entering the opponent's final third and getting in the penalty area. Plus, their underlying numbers really aren't that impressive, as they are only putting up 1.19 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 14th in the Premier League.
Brentford vs Wolves
Prediction
These are really good spots to back Brentford. The Bees thrive when they are controlling more possession when playing out of their 4-3-3 given how good their underlying metrics have been. They also have been incredibly good over the last two seasons at home against lower tier competition.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Brentford have played 14 matches against teams in the bottom half of the table at home and they have a +13 expected goal differential. Even without Mbuemo, who has been their best attacker this season, Brentford still possess the quality in their squad to profile well as a favorite.
Given how well Brentford have performed at home and given Wolves away form, I love the value on the Bees at +100.
