Brighton vs. Everton Odds
| Brighton Odds | +135 |
| Everton Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -150) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
The first two matchweeks of the Premier League season have brought lots of drama, surprises and excellent goals. But perhaps the biggest surprise comes from the English south coast: Brighton has outperformed its expected goals in both of its games this season. Two wins for the Seagulls against Burnley and Watford are suggesting that maybe this is the year for Graham Potter's men to vault themselves up the table into the top half.
Standing in their way on Saturday is Rafa Benitez's Everton, which has taken four points from six with an opening day win against Southampton and a thrilling 2-2 draw with Leeds United last weekend.
Everton have certainly been improved after a dismal end to the last season under Carlo Ancelotti, but Brighton are still too cheap according to my PL projections and represents good value to continue their winning steak to begin the season.
Brighton Continue To Trend Up
Brighton had a sluggish opening half to the season against Burnley when they conceded multiple big early scoring chances and were a bit fortunate to not trail by multiple goals. But the last three halves have looked a lot more like Brighton of 2020-21. When they showed off excellent passing to break presses and were consistently winning the ball high up the pitch.
Throw in that Neal Maupay — often criticized last year for missing big chances — has converted both of his two big scoring chances in 180 minutes this season and the Seagulls have a +3 goal difference from a +0.9 xG difference. It's important to note that xG is extremely noisy in the short term, but the underlying numbers in this Brighton side are just fine.
They are top half in passes completed into the penalty area, and top half in fewest passes allowed. They've allowed three crosses into the area in two games, among the top in the PL and important given their opponent in Everton has relied heavily on crossing.
Brighton has the seventh-most touches in the opposition penalty area, and has allowed the fourth-fewest. They're better than Everton in every passing and possession metric and playing at home.
Everton Can Be Beat in the Midfield
Given how Brighton are among the best in the PL at pressing success rate in the entire Premier League, Everton's lack of plus passers in the midfield is an issue in this matchup. The Seagulls don't press that often, but when they do, they're very effective.
Two of Everton's three conceded goals through two matches have come from defensive errors, players losing the ball and that leading directly to clear scoring chances for the opponent. Everton's side has among the fewest midfield touches and is in the bottom half of touches in the attacking half of the field because of their lacking passing range.
Some of that latter statistic has to do with the opposition they've faced, but Everton are going to struggle to progress the ball up the wings in this game to get their crosses into Dominic Calvert-Lewin. It's a major reason that the Toffees managed just eight shots in an April trip to Brighton that ended in a 0-0 draw.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projections make Brighton +105 to take all three points, thus anything +120 or better is worth a play on the Seagulls. Everton's two results have been solid, but the performances have been less so. A team this reliant on crossing is facing a Brighton side that is more vulnerable to direct transition counters than crosses from wide.
Everton doesn't have enough plus passers in the side to break down Brighton's stingy defense and Everton's defense hasn't truly been tested by a team with the passing ability of Brighton yet. While Southampton and Leeds' pressing is one challenge that Everton managed, Potter's side represent a very different one.
Brighton should continue its excellent form to begin the season against slightly tougher opposition and pressure Everton into a costly mistake at the back that could make the difference.
Pick: Brighton moneyline (+120 or better)
