Brighton vs Chelsea Odds
| Brighton Odds | +210 |
| Chelsea Odds | +105 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100 / -125 |
Chelsea will try to continue their late-season surge up the table when they visit a Brighton and Hove Albion squad that has been mired in an extended attacking slump.
With Tottenham’s loss to Manchester City on Tuesday, Chelsea began Wednesday with a slim chance of catching Spurs for sixth in the league table.
Brighton have an even slimmer chance of finishing as high as eighth with wins in their last two, but they could virtually assure themselves of 10th or better with a home win.
Chelsea earned a 3-2 win in the sides’ previous meeting at Stamford Bridge back in early December.
Read on for my full Brighton vs Chelsea prediction.
Brighton
A Brighton side that has drawn praise in recent seasons for its attacking endeavor has been mired in a prolonged attacking funk, scoring only six times in their last 11 league meetings.
Injuries have been a contributing factor. Leading scorer Joao Pedro missed five of those games and came off the bench for a sixth, though he should be available after missing a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on the weekend with an ankle issue.
Solly March has been unavailable most of the season, and Karou Mitoma and Evan Ferguson are also out for Wednesday with continuing ailments.
Considering all that, the Seagulls’ haul of 10 points over those 11 matches is fairly impressive, having come on only six total goals scored against 18 conceded.
And despite not scoring multiple goals in any of those 11 games, maybe they’re nearing a breakthrough after more promising performances in their last two matches.
The Seagulls combined to create 3.9 expected goals in their last two games, a 1-0 home win over Aston Villa and a 1-1 away draw at Newcastle United.
It was the most manager Roberto De Zerbi’s side had generated over two games since a 5-0 win over Sheffield United followed by a 1-1 draw against Everton in February.
Chelsea
There have been plenty of growing pains in Mauricio Pochettino’s first year in charge at Chelsea, but the Argentine appears to have succeeded in bringing measurable improvements.
The Blues have lost only once in their last 13 to climb from their position beneath the mid-table line. And perhaps most encouragingly, they’ve appeared to solve some of their previous defensive struggles recently, keeping clean sheets in three of their last six.
But the next step is taking that defense on their travels. The Blues have conceded two or more in five consecutive away league fixtures, and 12 overall. Technically you could say those recent efforts have been slightly unlucky, with opponents outscoring their xG predictions in all five of those games. Even so, a total of 11.7 expected goals allowed in those five games is no show of strength.
Haaland’s brace against Spurs probably ends any realistic shot for Chelsea’s Cole Palmer to win the PL Golden Boot. He enters the match on 21 goals, six back of Haaland with only one goal in his last four appearances.
Brighton vs Chelsea
Prediction
For all of Chelsea’s improvement, they have still proven an inconsistent away side, winning only five times on their travels. That includes only one match against a team in the top half and only three times against teams outside of the bottom quarter of the table.
Meanwhile, although Brighton’s attacking struggles have tangible causes, they’ve also appeared to catch their breath in recent weeks after their UEFA Europa League round of 16 in March. They’ve only lost three times at home, with two of those coming to title contenders Arsenal and City.
So it’s Chelsea who are the team to fade here. But in light of Brighton’s goal-scoring struggles and both teams’ propensity to draw matches, I’m fading in an unorthodox way, backing a draw well above even money in the home no bet market.
This is similar to a draw no bet wager, except a Brighton win makes the bet void. And at +165 odds, you’re backing an implied 37.7% probability that a draw is more likely than a Chelsea win, which data from the season suggests is very much the case here.
