Brighton vs Everton Odds
| Brighton Odds | -120 |
| Everton Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +120 |
Brighton and Hove Albion will look for back-to-back league wins for the first time since September when they host an Everton side desperate to snap its winless run on Saturday.
Brighton hardly had to get out of second gear to cruise to a 5-0 victory at Sheffield United last Sunday in a game made far easier for the visitors by an early red card to the hosts. And while they haven’t been as consistent since beginning group play in the UEFA Europa League, they’ve still only lost just once in 12 home league fixtures.
Meanwhile, Everton have only one win in their last 12 fixtures in all competitions and are winless in eight in the league. But they’ve drawn as many league games as they’ve lost in that stretch, which means they still enter the weekend above the relegation places on account of their superior goal difference to Luton Town.
The teams settled for a 1-1 draw in their previous league meeting on Merseyside in early November, with Everton denied all three points by a late Ashley Young own goal.
Here is how I'm betting Brighton vs Everton.
Brighton
Brighton certainly missed Ivory Coast international Simon Adingra as he was helping his nation lift the African Cup of Nations, but they may benefit from the confidence he built performing on one of the highest international stages.
Adingra assisted both goals in Ivory Coast’s 2-1 victory over Nigeria in the final and was named man of the match for his efforts. Then he returned to the Seagulls and scored their last two goals in last weekend’s win over the Blades, including a classily taken one-time finish that stretched their lead to 4-0.
And while it’s unreasonable to expect the 22-year-old to be as active in most games as he was against 10-man Sheffield United, it would be a good time to make a major step forward in terms of consistent goal scoring production. Seagulls leading goal scorer Joao Pedro remains shelved, and Irish teenager Evan Ferguson hasn’t found the net since the end of November.
Karo Mitoma also returned from international duty on the opposite flank, and while he didn’t directly contribute to a goal, he was involved in the match’s critical moment — on the receiving end of Mason Holgate’s red card challenge.
Unsurprisingly, Brighton had 79% possession in part as a result of going up a man. It was their first game out of six where they’ve had more than 70% and won. Four of the other five finished as draws, including their previous draw at Everton.
Everton
Everton’s winter slump has more or less mirrored the injury trajectory of Abdoulaye Doucoure, who still leads the team with six league goals despite missing most of the last two months.
Doucoure left injured at halftime of the Toffees’ last league win — 2-0 at Burnley — and has played only twice since, in home league draws to Aston Villa and Monday against Palace. All signs suggest he should feature again in Sean Dyche’s preferred second striker role, and when he’s been in the team the Toffees have lost only one of their last 11 in their all competitions.
Everton have scored the third-fewest PL goals (27) and are tied for the fourth-fewest conceded (33), but only the latter number meshes closely with the team’s expected goals data. The xG numbers say Dyche’s squad should be closer to 37 goals, and striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the biggest culprit, scoring only three times in the league against 9.0 xG.
Yet Calvert-Lewin will probably retain his spot at the top of his team’s formation, since Beto, his main rival for minutes, hasn’t proven prolific as a scorer or equal to Calvert-Lewin in other parts of modern striker play.
The Toffees probably deserved all three points in their most recent 1-1 affair, going behind on Jordan Ayew’s long-range thunderbolt but eventually manufacturing a set-piece equalizer through Amadou Onana after several near misses earlier in the second half.
Brighton vs Everton
Prediction
Everton's expected goal difference away from home suggests their strong away form (5-5-2, W-L-D) is in line for a regression. But maybe not when you look at the game by game numbers.
Of the Toffees' 12 away league matches, Everton created equal to or more xG than their opponents in eight of them. It speaks to the fact Dyche's squad is better set up to perform as counterpunchers. And while Dacoure's return didn't immediately result in victory, it was probably reasonable to expect a bit of rust that won't carry over to his second game back.
As for Brighton, the returns of Adingra and Mitoma are significant, but the latter may have picked up a back issue in his last appearance and the cohort of missing players led by Joao Pedro is certainly more significant than Everton's.
Also, the match is probably likely to take a shape the Seagulls have struggled with at times, with Everton plenty content to allow the hosts most of the ball. Brighton have won none of their four home matches in which they held more than 70% possession, a dynamic that could surface regardless of how the game plays out and almost certainly if Everton can find an early goal.
That's enough reason to back the Toffees to earn at least a point here if you can get the wager at even money or better. If you can't, the alternative is to parlay the Everton double-chance bet with a total under 4.5 goals. Dyche's squad have only taken points in one match in which the total went above four.
