Brighton & vs Man United Odds
| Brighton & Hove Albion Odds | +150 |
| Manchester United Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
Man United looks for back to back wins to begin the season when they travel to the Amex to take on Brighton.
Brighton got the Fabian Hurzeler era off to a fantastic start beating Everton on the road 3-0. They looked a lot different in certain aspects than they did under De Zerbi, but a lot of it is for the better. The Seagulls have given Manchester United a lot of problems over the years and look poised for all three points against them here at home.
Manchester United grabbed a deserved late winner against Fulham to kick off the Premier League season. Erik Ten Hag's tenure has been tumultuous as of late, but Friday's performance should give United fans a lot of confidence. However, this is a pretty big step up in competition against a team that has had their number ever since Ten Hag was in charge.
Here is my Brighton vs Man United prediction.
Brighton Picks
Brighton under Fabian Hurzeler looked pretty good against Everton, especially in their build up. For the first 10 or 15 minutes they were pretty shaky, but they figured out as the match went along how to break down Everton’s defensive block. Hurzeler used a couple different build up structures, but the main core of it was splitting the center backs and having Wieffer as a single pivot. Bringing the goalkeeper out in build up gave them a 3 v 2 through the first phase and then the full backs and wingers stayed as wide as possible to stretch Everton’s defensive block and then once they beat the first phase of build up, the wingers would invert to find the vacated space. What it allowed is Brighton to find ways to play through the middle of Everton, which threw the Toffees all out of sorts.
What Brighton also did was try to get overloads in wide areas with Milner and Joao Pedro operating in the half spaces, which often times gave Mitoma and Minteh 1 v 1 opportunities against the opposing fullbacks, which is how they scored their first goal. Mitoma against Mazraoui is going to be a key matchup for Brighton because as good as Mazraoui in build up, he’s not a good 1 v 1 defender and Mitoma is one of the best dribblers in the Premier League.
Brighton out of possession were pretty good against Everton with their compact defensive block. Hurzeler is not going to have his team press high consistently like De Zerbi and is instead going to sit in a mid-block. While it's going to take some time for them to perfect it, Fulham showed that Manchester United aren't really that effective in breaking down good defensive blocks, so Brighton should be able to limit their chances.
Man United Picks
What Brighton also did out of possession was play a high line, which was constantly catching Everton offsides. Manchester United at the moment don't have a striker that is a consistent threat to get in behind the opposing defense, so Brighton are going to be playing a compact defensive block and deny any space in between the lines. Manchester United really struggled breaking down Fulham’s defensive block. Even though they created over two expected goals, they only had seven shots inside Fulham’s penalty area and their biggest chance came at the end of the match when the game was stretched.
Manchester United’s press was better against Fulham, but in my opinion it was more of a case of Fulham being poor in build up rather than Manchester United being effective. They weren’t effective early on at applying ball pressure to Fulham, who through the first 20 minutes had 57% possession. To United’s credit, they were solid when they fell back into their 4-4-2 defensive block, but Fulham do not have anywhere close to the wingers they are going to face against Brighton.
Erik Ten Hag has consistently shown that his press hasn't been to the level as some of the elites. It would give Manchester United the best opportunity to win if they sat in a compact shape defensively, but I really don't think he's going to do that. So, if Manchester United's press is as hesitant as it was against Fulham, Brighton are going to have a lot of success in build up.
Brighton vs Man United
Prediction
Even with the poor run that Brighton had under De Zerbi last season, they still finished with a much better expected goal differential than Manchester United. They will have advantages on the wings with Mitoma back in the lineup after missing half of the season last year. When he's healthy he's averaging 0.56 xG + xA per 90 minutes.
Manchester United's press has got to improve if they are going to cause Brighton any real problems out of possession. Hurzeler has already implemented a really good and flexible build up system that is going to cause United a lot of problems.
Brighton have beaten Manchester United in three of the last four meetings and won the expected goals battle in all four of those matches in which Ten Hag was in charge. I have Brighton projected as a +118 favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at -112.
