Brighton vs Man United Predictions
| Brighton Odds | +130 |
| Man United Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -138o / +110u |
After beating Newcastle on Wednesday, Manchester United is still alive for a Europa Conference League spot, but it will likely need a win against Brighton to achieve that.
Brighton has been a rollercoaster under Roberto De Zerbi over the second half of the season. They've had a lot of bad performances where they cannot create anything offensively and then will have performances like the one against Aston Villa at home where they create three expected goals and hold them to two shots. A win would secure a top-half finish for a third straight season for the Seagulls, which would be a massive accomplishment for the club.
Manchester United has been the most scrutinized club in the Premier League this season, and it's honestly crazy just how much they have over performed to be able to even be in a position for European football. To be fair, they have sustained a lot of injuries throughout the year, but also being one of the most tactically flawed teams doesn't help things. It's been reported that United is 50-50 on whether they want to bring Erik ten Hag back, so this match is very crucial to not only his future, but the future of the club.
Find my Brighton vs. Man United prediction and Premier League match preview below.
Brighton
De Zerbi is a great manager and has gotten Brighton to places the club never even dreamed, but in possession, his team has become predictable.
Plan A for De Zerbi is to build out of the back, hold the ball, bait the opponent into pressing and then find the free man after engaging the press to create a transition opportunity going forward. It worked last year and for a stretch at the beginning of this season. What happened though is teams have figured out that if you don’t press Brighton and play super passive, it tends to struggle to create chances. Brighton wants to overload the center parts of the pitch and always have a 4 vs. 3 in build up, but they aren't able to play though the middle effectively anymore and it’s put a real damper on their offensive numbers.
The other end of the spectrum on Brighton is teams do press their build relentlessly and are causing problems with high turnovers. It shows in the numbers too; Brighton has scored two non-penalty goals since the beginning of April. Since the beginning of February, the Seagulls are dead last in the Premier League, averaging only 1.39 xG per 90 minutes.
The losses of Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson, Solly March and Pervis Estupiñán have really put a damper on Brighton's attack even though they are so deep.
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Man United
Ten Hag has too many times gotten Manchester United caught in between two different tactical systems when they are out of possession. Normally, the front four in their 4-2-3-1 will press the opponent, but once that first line of pressure is beaten there is acres of space to run at them. Lately, ten Hag has moved Manchester United to being a little more passive defensively, which has helped slightly, even if their defensive numbers are still terrible.
But teams that really punish Manchester United are usually the ones that can play fast and very direct, which are really the only matches in which Manchester United has a chance because of its prowess attacking in transition. Brighton is not one of those teams. De Zerbi wants his team to play out of the back and have control over the match, which means the pace is typically pretty slow. As you can see below, Brighton's direct speed is the second lowest in the Premier League.
Image via The Analyst
The Manchester United attack can be effective at times, but it really hasn't been that great over the full course of the season. Manchester United mainly relies on shots from outside the box or low-quality chances; they have created the fewest big scoring chances of anyone in the Premier League. Not a single player on Manchester Untied has an xG per 90 scoring rate over 0.35, which shows how ineffective their attack has been.
Brighton vs Man United
Prediction
Brighton beat Manchester United in the previous meeting 3-1, but there were only 2.7 expected goals created in that match.
Brighton is dealing with a lot of injuries, but the main benefit the Seagulls have is depth. They will be missing their captain Lewis Dunk for this match, which is not a massive loss defensively, but he is their main aerial threat on set pieces, which is something United has been average at defending this season.
The Brighton offense has had its woes, but the Brighton defense has actually been pretty good, allowing the seventh-fewest non-penalty expected goals and the sixth-fewest big scoring chances. That being said, they've been done in by bad goalkeeping play.
Only three Brighton matches since the beginning of March have had more than 3.5 expected goals created in them, and I only have 3.2 goals projected for this match, so I think the total is too high.
Pick: Under 3.5 (+100 via DraftKings)
