Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Brighton Odds | -134 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +320 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163o /+125u |
Brighton will look to end its bad run of form when it hosts Nottingham Forest at the Amex.
The Seagulls are reeling right now. They are winless in their last four matches and desperate to turn things in the right direction. They beat Nottingham Forest in the previous meeting, so they will have a good opportunity to turn the tide on their season after losing to Roma 4-0 in the Europa League.
Nottingham Forest is trying to fight off relegation with a potential points deduction looming as well. They've been in decent form ever since Nuno Espírito Santo took over, but do need to start getting results to get out of the relegation fight. They tragically lost in stoppage time to Liverpool over the weekend, but will be in a good position defensively to get a result.
Let's dive into our Brighton vs Nottingham Forest prediction and pick.
Brighton
Roberto De Zerbi is a great manager and has gotten Brighton to places the club never even dreamed, but in possession, his team has become predictable.
Plan A for De Zerbi is to build out of the back, hold the ball, bait the opponent into pressing and then find the free man after engaging the press to create a transition opportunity going forward. It worked last year, and for a stretch at the beginning of this season. What happened though is teams have figured out that if you don’t press Brighton and play super passive, it tends to struggle to create chances. Brighton wants to overload the center parts of the pitch and always have a 4 vs. 3 in build up, but they aren’t able to play though the middle effectively anymore and it’s put a real damper on their offensive numbers.
Brighton also is limited in terms of the personnel available for its attack. Kaoru Mitoma is maybe out until the end of the season, which is not ideal against a low defensive block because he often gets into one-on-one situations and creates a lot of chances from out wide. The biggest loss, though, is João Pedro not being able to play. Pedro leads Brighton this season with eight goals and has a 0.54 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, with nobody else on the team over 0.35.
Brighton has now played three straight matches against teams that play passive low defensive blocks: Everton, Wolves and Fulham. In those three matches, it scored one goal and failed to create over 1.5 expected goals in any of those matches.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest is playing a little differently under Nuno than it did under Steve Cooper. There has been more of a willingness to build out of the back instead of playing incredibly direct, and the formation has switched from a 3-5-2 to a 4-2-3-1, which does suit the personnel it has little better.
With that being said, Nottingham Forest out of possession hasn’t really changed under Nuno. They are still playing a passive defensive block, but their defensive numbers have drastically improved under him against non-elite sides. They had some bad matches against Aston Villa, Liverpool and Newcastle, but in six of his nine Premier League matches in charge, they have held opponents under 1.5 expected goals.
Additionally, their defensive block has been the best in the Premier League at preventing teams from getting into the penalty area once they enter the final third. Forest has the best final third to box entry conversion rate allowed at 25.6%, so it will be well equipped to prevent Brighton from getting in its penalty area.
There was also a stretch during January and February where pretty much all of Nottingham Forest's back line was away at the Africa Cup of Nations. Even with that in mind, under Nuno, Nottingham Forest has a -0.10 xGD per 90 minutes, while under Cooper it was at a -0.42 xGD per 90 minutes.
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
This match sets up to be a very slow, grind it out type of match. Nottingham Forest has been the most passive team in the Premier League since Nuno has taken over, so it is going to let Brighton walk into its final third — but the Seagulls aren't going to be able to play through the middle of the pitch like they want to.
Plus, since Brighton is without its best winger in Mitoma or its best strike in Pedro, it's going to be really difficult for Brighton to break down Forest's low block.
I only have 2.6 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Under 3 goals at -112.
Pick: Under 3 goals (-112 via BetRivers)
