Tottenham look to build off their win over Manchester United when they travel to the south coast to take on Brighton.
Brighton got battered in their last match against Chelsea, conceding four first half goals to Cole Palmer. It’s been an up and down start to the Fabian Hurzeler era at the Amex with their style of play being uber-aggressive. Brighton got a famous 4-2 win over Tottenham at home last season and will be looking of a similar result on Sunday.
Tottenham made a statement at Old Trafford over the weekend, dominating Manchester United 3-0. It’s their first big win of the season after failing their other two tests against Newcastle and Arsenal. Ange Postecoglu had Tottenham on top of the mountain at beginning of last season, but his style of play has cause them to slowly slide down the table. If they can win this match it would be five in a row in all competitions heading into the international break.
Here is my Brighton vs. Tottenham prediction.
Brighton vs. Tottenham Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Brighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -150 | 3.5 -108o / -114u | +190 |
| Tottenham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +120 | 3.5 -108o / -114u | +120 |
- Brighton vs. Tottenham moneyline odds: Brighton +190, Tottenham +120, Draw +290
- Brighton vs. Tottenham over/under: 3.5 goals (over -108, under -114)
- Brighton vs. Tottenham pick: Over 3.5
I am backing the over 3.5 in Tottenham vs. Brighton.
Brighton Preview
Brighton have looked good under Fabian Hurzeler, even if the results haven’t shown it. The Seagulls are building up in a lot of different formations, but their most common one is a base 4-2-4. The wingbacks will often push high as they get further up the pitch with the last line of four being very narrow so balls can be played out wide to the advancing fullbacks to create a 1 v 1 or 2 v 1 out wide.
Brighton will also change their build up formation based what type of defensive structure their opponent is in. The entire aim though is overload the opposition where they are weakest. Whether that is out wide or through the middle, Hurzeler wants his team to exploit the opposing team's weakness.
What is clear though with Brighton is they are really effective at getting through the first two phases of build up with pretty relative ease. They are turning the ball over at the third lowest rate in their own end of the pitch and also have the third-most final third touches so far this season.
Under Hurzeler, Brighton are playing an incredibly dangerous high defensive line. Per markstats, Brighton have the second-highest average defensive line at 50.9 meters. It cost them against Chelsea, as the Blues were able to expose it time and time again. Brighton have drawn a ton of opponents offsides and it’s allowed their press to be effective, but once teams are able to play in behind it, they allow a ton of big scoring chances.
Tottenham Preview
Tottenham were able to take advantage of Manchester United’s passive structure and create a lot of chances, but that isn’t going to be the case against Brighton. No team has really consistently pressed Tottenham high, so this will be the first big test of the season for Ange Postecoglu’s build up.
What most teams are doing against Tottenham is sitting in a compact defensive structure and not letting them overload the middle. They are then leaving the Tottenham wingers in 1 v 1 situations because they are not great at beating the opposing fullback off the dribble. However, if Brighton are going to play their high defensive line, Brennan Johnson and Heung-Min Son are really good at making runs off the opponent's back line.
Tottenham are the most aggressive pressing team in the Premier League right now and it's worked in their last two Premier League matches. That is a principle under Ange Postecoglu that is not going to change, as Tottenham are always going to be extremely aggressive, which does leave them vulnerable to counterattacks and balls over the top. They currently lead the Premier League in PPDA and high turnovers, so even though Brighton’s build up has been good, they haven’t faced a pressing team like Tottenham yet.
Brighton vs. Tottenham Prediction
This is going to be the most chaotic and entertaining match of the weekend. These are the No. 1 and 2 teams in PPDA and both are in the top three for highest average defensive line. That means there is going to be so many break away chances at both ends, so it’s really hard to see who will come out on top. These two are second and third in field tilt as well, so both teams will be doing whatever possible to try and pin their opponent inside their own final third.
One thing for sure is there will be chances and likely goals. Brighton matches this season are averaging 3.16 expected goals, while Tottenham matches are averaging 3.29 expected goals. In the previous two meetings between these two teams there have been a total of nine goals and 8.3 expected goals created.
Both of these managers want to play very aggressively, so this one should get off the rails pretty quickly. I like the value on over 3.5 goals at even money.
