Brighton vs Wolves Odds
| Brighton Odds | -163 |
| Wolves Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +125 |
Brighton look to try to make a charge towards the top four when they host Wolves on Monday night football.
The Seagulls have been going through a good run that has only seen them lose one of their last eight matches across all competitions. They are currently nine points back of Tottenham for fifth place with a game in hand and are starting to get some of their key players back from injury. This will be a good test to see where Brighton is at against a stingy Wolves team.
Wolves came into the season in peril, but to be where they are in the table right now is a testament to the job Gary O'Neill has done. With that being said, Wolves have over-performed this season to get to 12th place in the table and will be shorthanded for this road trip to the Amex.
Here is my Brighton vs Wolves prediction.
Check out our latest bet365 promo code before making your Premier League wagers.
Brighton
It's once again the classic matchup of Roberto De Zerbi versus low blocks.
Let's first start with what has been happening with Brighton this Premier League this season. Brighton only have one way of playing. They want to build out of the back, bait the opponent into pressing, then once they get pressed they find the open space left by the defender that went to press the ball and exploit it. Brighton also want to dominate the central areas of the pitch and will often create a four-man box midfield that is all playing very tight together to make sure they always have a four versus three overload in build up.
Here is the problem, what happens when opponents don't take the bait? What if they sit in a low block and dare Brighton to break them down? De Zerbi is still trying to figure that out. That is not to say they haven't been effective at creating chances. Their last match out in the Premier League, they played one the most passive low blocks in West Ham and racked up 22 shots and 2.3 expected goals, but theycouldn't find the back of the net.
Even though De Zerbi wants his team to play through the middle of the pitch, it often benefits Brighton to get 1 v 1 situations out wide against the opposing fullbacks. Pascal Groß and Pervis Estupiñán are so crucial to Brighton's success because De Zerbi often wants his wingers to invert and play more centrally to help Brighton create chances through the middle. However, Groß and Estupiñán getting forward to create chances via crosses is a game changer for De Zerbi, especially in this match.
Brighton's work out of possession has drastically improved as well from the beginning of the season. They have allowed the fourth-fewest non-penalty expected goals in the Premier League since October 21st and a large part of that is because they have so many guys in the middle of the pitch, it makes it very difficult for team to counter attack them centrally.
Wolves
Wolves are an incredibly difficult team to figure out how truly good they are.
O'Neill has done a masterful job as a tactician to get Wolves into the position that they are right now, but the reality is that their underlying metrics are quite poor. For the season, Wolves have a -6.5 expected goal differential and quite frankly they have a below average defense. They are allowing 1.46 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 11th in the Premier League, and they are a below average team at disrupting build up play.
When Wolves have to step up in competition, they typically are not good enough in their low block to keep good offensive teams at bay. Against the current top eight, Wolves have allowed 14 expected goals in eight matches and gave up 2.2 to Brighton in the previous meeting.
Wolves have a little bit of a problem in this match because their best attacker Hee-Chan Hwang is at the Asian Cup representing South Korea. Hwang has been involved in 13 of Wolves 29 goals and has kind of covered up the fact that Matheus Cunha has been really underwhelming as the teams main striker. Cunha only has six goals and a 0.32 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, so without Hwang it's going to be difficult for Wolves to create a lot of chances against a well improved Brighton defense.
Brighton vs Wolves
Prediction
Not only are Wolves going to be without Hwang, but they also are going to be without one of their best midfielders in Joao Gomes, who has been stellar as a ball-stopper alongside Mario Lemina in the middle of the pitch.
Is Wolves' low block good enough to slow down De Zerbi's build up? Should Wolves try and press Brighton the way Arsenal and Crystal Palace did successfully? There may be more questions with what O'Neill needs to do rather than De Zerbi. Brighton are averaging 1.80 xG per 90 minutes against teams that play mid to low passive low blocks, so I would hardly saw they are having trouble creating chances.
Brighton have been really good at the Amex this season, putting up a +5.9 xGD, while Wolves have been -4.8 on the road.
So, I like the value on the Seagulls to grab all three points at -150.
