Augsburg at Mainz Odds and Picks
| Augsburg odds | +210 (BET NOW) |
| Mainz odds | +128 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +235 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-124/+100) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
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Only one point separates 14th-place Augsburg and 15th-place Mainz in the Bundesliga table and a look below the surface shows that these two teams are near mirror images of one another.
When you convert the listed odds to implied probability you see how tight this game is projected to be:
- Mainz: 41.4%
- Draw: 28.2%
- Augsburg: 30.4%
All of this makes sense as neither Augsburg nor Mainz do anything particularly well. They both grade out below average defensively and are pretty pedestrian going forward, too.
Weirdly the two teams are in near-identical form going into the weekend. They each have a win, two draws and two losses from their last five matches.
| Augsburg | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.37 | 1.3 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.41 | 1.42 |
| Goals against per game | 1.9 | 2.07 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.74 | 1.9 |
| Total goals per game | 3.27 | 3.37 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.15 | 3.33 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
At the moment, neither Augsburg nor Mainz are in too much relegation danger but a loss for either side on Sunday morning could put them in a precarious situation. Werder Bremen, currently in 16th place, are just four points behind Augsburg and three behind Mainz.
Both teams will want to add a bigger buffer between them and Werder as we head into the season's final three weeks.
Even though both of these teams average over 3.25 goals per game bookmakers are expecting a relatively tight affair as the Over/Under is set at 2.5 goals, which is on the lower end for the Bundesliga. Perhaps the oddsmakers are expecting both sides to keep things safe and avoid a big mistake that could land them in a precarious position to close out the season.
Recent form also points to a low-scoring match as these two teams have combined to score just four goals in their last six games combined.
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Both of these offenses are sputtering at the moment but I don't trust either defense to hold things together for 90 minutes. No team in the Bundesliga has kept fewer clean sheets than Mainz and 70% of Die Nullfunfer's matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season.
Augsburg's defensive numbers are a bit stronger than that, but they rank seventh worst in expected goals allowed and 67% of their matches have eclipsed 2.5 goals.
Both teams are in awful scoring form and maybe they do play things close to the vest and skate to a low-scoring draw, but I think this total is too low from a statistical standpoint. I'll back the Over 2.5 goals up to -130.
