Bayern Munich vs. Werder Bremen Bundesliga Picks: Odds and Betting Predictions for Tuesday’s Match

Bayern Munich at Werder Bremen Odds and Picks

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Bayern Munich moved even closer to an eighth-straight Bundesliga title on Saturday, stealing a 2-1 win against Borussia Monchengladbach with an 86’ winner by Leon Goretzka. A victory on Tuesday at Werder Bremen would see them lift the title before Borussia Dortmund kicks off on Wednesday afternoon.

To break this game down, you have to think about some game theory. Werder Bremen sits on 28 points, in 17th place, and would be relegated if the season ended right now. But, they are tied on points with 16th-place Dusseldorf, and just three points behind Mainz in 15th.

If Bayern grabs an early goal or two, this game could get away quickly for Bremen, who should immediately shift the focus to Saturday’s matchup with Mainz, which will be far more consequential for their chances of remaining in the Bundesliga. Bremen enter Tuesday’s match off a 5-1 thrashing of Paderborn on Saturday in a critical relegation six-pointer.

This game, against a far superior team that should handle them easily, is a bad sandwich spot for them in between two of the season’s most important games. They’re unlikely to rest players, but if the goals start adding up, manager Florian Kohfeldt may take off some attackers to rest up for Saturday.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

For Bayern, all eyes are on Tuesday. A win and they can put one trophy to rest and turn all attention to the DFB-Pokal final against Bayer Leverkusen on July 4. The Bavarians have two of their top scorers returning, Robert Lewandowski (30 goals) and Thomas Muller (7 goals, 20 assists).

Bayern generated 1.5 xG, its second-lowest tally since the Bundesliga returned, against Monchengladbach on Saturday. Relying on younger, less proven talent up top stunted the Munich attack, but a rested Lewandowski and Muller and a return for left back Alphonso Davies should propel the Bayern attack against a weak Bremen defense.

In seven matches against the bottom four teams in the Bundesliga this season, Bayern have a perfect 7-0-0 record, and have outscored their opponents, 30-7. That includes a 5-0, 4-0, and two 6-1 wins, including a 6-1 jolting of Bremen in the reverse fixture on Dec. 14.

Werder Bremen have actually scored 21 first-half goals to just 14 in the second half, and they’ve been much worse defending in the final 45 minutes, so I’ll avoid any type of Bayern first-half bet.

In fact, an early Werder goal could present a good live-betting opportunity on the champions. In the first meeting, Werder scored first before Bayern hit back with six goals.

Either way, I’m expecting Bayern, back at full strength, to have no problems dispatching Werder Bremen en route to an eighth-consecutive Bundesliga title.