Mainz at Borussia Dortmund Odds and Picks
| Mainz odds | +950 (BET NOW) |
| Borussia Dortmund odds | -400 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +500 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-106/-117) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Wednesday, 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS2 |
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Borussia Dortmund are a frustrating team to handicap. There's no denying they are one of the best teams in the Bundesliga and BVB's attacking talent is up there with some of the best teams in the world, but their reputation as a high-flying offense is a bit misleading.
Dortmund are second in the Bundesliga with 82 goals but their expected goals tally is 59.7 and that tells you that their reputation is a bit inflated. In fact, the numbers tell you that BVB's best asset is actually a defense that concedes the third-fewest xG per match in the Bundesliga.
Dortmund are a defensive powerhouse dressed in an offensive dynamo's clothing.
| Mainz | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 1.26 | 2.65 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.42 | 1.77 |
| Goals against per game | 2.03 | 1.13 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.87 | 1.16 |
| Total goals per game | 3.29 | 3.77 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.28 | 2.93 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
There's a lot to unpack from this match from a game theory perspective. Mainz have been pulled into a relegation scrap thanks to a terrible run of form and now find themselves just three points ahead of both Dusseldorf and Werder Bremen coming into Wednesday.
With a match against Bremen this weekend looming, Mainz can take a couple of approaches to this match against Dortmund. They can go for it and try to pull off the upset or they can sit back and hope to grind out a draw or a lucky win.
Either way, should Mainz find themselves behind by a couple of goals I'd expect Achim Beierlorzer to be pretty quick to pull the chord and use his five subs to keep his best players fresh for their upcoming relegation six-pointer with Werder Bremen.
I'd expect that to the be the case as the odds show that Dortmund wins this match 75% of the time:
- Dortmund: 75.3%
- Draw: 15.7%
- Mainz: 9%
Even though Dortmund is due for some offensive regression and BVB only created 0.68 expected goals and needed a last-gasp goal from Erling Haaland to beat Dusseldorf on Saturday, I can't trust Mainz's defense to hold off BVB for a full 90 minutes as Die Nullfunfer have conceded the third-most goals and fourth-most expected goals in the Bundesliga this season.
That doesn't bode well against a team like Dortmund who have shown the ability to consistently put away the opportunities they create over the course of 90 minutes.
As much time as I've spent on Dortmund's offense, their defense holds the key to this handicap as I have a tough time imagining a path to success for Mainz's offense. Dortmund has allowed just one non-penalty goal in their six matches since the Bundesliga returned and that marker came in a 1-0 loss to Bayern Munich.
A Dortmund win by at least three goals at +180 or backing them to win to nil at +140 both seem like appealing bets to me.
