Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Top Picks, Including Bochum & Wolfsburg (Dec. 14-15)

For the first time this season, we have midweek Bundesliga matches in Germany.

This past weekend there were some interesting results, such as RB Leipzig thrashing Borussia Mönchengladbach in a 4-1 rout; Greuther Fürth getting their first win of the season; and, Eintracht Frankfurt erasing a two-goal deficit to hand Bayer Leverkusen a 5-2 blowout defeat.

There is one lone intriguing match this week, as we have a top-four battle between Leverkusen and red-hot Hoffenheim. Currently, Bayern Munich has a six-point lead over Dortmund, so with both of them playing inferior opponents its key for the Black and Yellows to get all three points to prevent the Bavarians from running away with the title.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections 

Best Bets

Arminia Bielefeld vs. Bochum

Even though Bochum is currently sitting in 10th place in the table, they're not likely going to stay there. So, this match could end up being vitally important for both sides in surviving relegation.

Offensively, Bochum hasn’t been that bad as we would expect from a newly promoted team, especially since they've created 9.7 xG in their last seven matches. In those seven games, they also created more than one xG against Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim, Gladbach and Dortmund.

So, they shouldn't have much trouble creating chances against an Bielefeld defense allowing 1.67 NPxG per match and is last in box entries allowed, as well as crosses completed into their own penalty area, per fbref.com. 

Bielefeld's offense has been the worst in the Bundesliga, creating only 12.39 NPxG through their first 15 matches. In fact, they've created just three big scoring chances in their last 10 games. So, it's really hard to see why they're slight favorites, even though they're at home.

I have Bochum projected as a minor favorite at +177, so I love Bochum on the Draw No Bet wager at +115 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Bochum — Draw No Bet (+115)

Wolfsburg vs. Köln

This a fantastic buy-low spot for Wolfsburg, who have lost five matches in a row against good competition.

Offensively. Wolfsburg have not been great this season, but they haven't cratered, averaging 1.41 NPxG per match. Wolfsburg is also due for a ton of positive regression because they've been creating chances. The Wolves just haven't been putting them in the back of the net, as they've only scored 15 goals on the season, but have created 21.7 xG overall.

Even if the offense hasn't been playing at a high level, the defense that led Wolfsburg to a top-four finish last season is still there. They're only conceding 1.03 NPxG per match, which is second in the Bundesliga behind only Bayern Munich.

Wolfsburg are also second in shots allowed per 90 minutes, third in big scoring chances allowed and fourth in box entries allowed, which is huge against a Köln offense that's top seven in all of those categories.

The biggest thing in this matchup is the fact Köln is the league's best pressing team, as they're first in PPDA and pressure success rate. However, Wolfsburg is top six versus pressure, so they should be afforded some space behind the final line of defense.

I have Wolfsburg projected at -130, so I like them at +105 odds to grab all three points on home soil.

Pick: Wolfsburg ML (+105)

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Leverkusen vs. Hoffenheim

Negative regression for Leverkusen came in a massive way Sunday during its 5-2 loss at Frankfurt after going up 2-0 inside the first 22 minutes.

That said, Leverkusen is maybe the most fraudulent top-four contender I’ve ever seen. So far this season, they have a +16 actual goal differential versus a +3.5 expected goal differential. Now, they will be hosting potentially the hottest team in German top flight in Hoffenheim, who has won four in a row including wins over RB Leipzig, Frankfurt and Freiburg. 

Offensively, Leverkusen is due for so much negative regression that it’s not even funny at this point. Leverkusen has scored 35 goals off 22.7 xG thus far. goals. That -12.3 over-performance is the biggest gap among Europe’s top-five leagues as well.

The reason Leverkusen are over-performing is because they're finishing at a high rate from longer distances than most teams. Leverkusen has taken nine shots inside the six-yard box. For comparison, league leader Bayern Munich has taken 31 shots inside the six-yard box this season.

That said, it’s hard to see a world where Leverkusen is able to continue to finish at this rate, despite creating almost nothing close to the goal and taking the fourth fewest shots per 90 minutes (11.79, per fbref.com). Plus Hoffenheim is top six in NPxG allowed, shots allowed per 90 minutes and big scoring chances allowed, according to fbref.com.

Defensively, Leverkusen is fourth in NPxG allowed, but they allow a high number of shots and box entries, ranking in bottom half of the Bundesliga in both of those metrics. Simply put, they just don't allow anything of high quality. That’s going to change against a surging Hoffenheim offense that's fourth in NPxG, second in big scoring chances and fifth in box entries.

I only have Leverkusen projected at +126, so I love the value on Hoffenheim +0.5 at +105 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Hoffenheim +0.5 (+105)