The Bundesliga season returns Friday when Bayern Munich visits Eintracht Frankfurt, with the reigning champion kicking off its quest for an 11th consecutive league title in Germany.
The league also has six matches featured Saturday, highlighted by Bayer Leverkusen hitting the road to take on Borussia Dortmund. Both are likely top-4 candidates and potential title challengers to the Bavarians' throne.
In other action, Union Berlin hosts Hertha Berlin in another rendition of the Berlin derby, except Union has now safely passed its local rival in success and table hierarchy. Hertha is fortunate to still be in the league after barely fighting off relegation.
Also, Borussia Mönchengladbach looks to bounce back from a bad season when the club kicks off the new campaign against Hoffenheim.
So, here are my three favorite bets from the Bundesliga's jam packed weekend schedule.
Bundesliga Best Bets
Bochum vs. Mainz
| Bochum Odds | +210 |
| Mainz Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Bochum was pretty fortunate to get promoted based on its underlying numbers in the 2020-21 season from the second division, but produced a solid first campaign in the German top flight. These are the kind of teams I'm generally looking to bet against, especially given the lack of transfer activity from them so far this summer.
Even though Bochum was never in any relegation danger, its attack struggled to consistently create quality chances, while the defense ran pretty well based on underlying xG numbers. Bochum only conceded about 52 goals from 57 xG because of its goalkeeper play. However, the club has since lost two center backs via transfer sales.
It's reasonable to expect regression at both ends of the pitch and the club won't be able to create big scoring chances against a Mainz defense that allowed the fewest in the entire league a season ago.
Mainz sits at +110 on the monyeline in my projections, so I will bet the favorite at +115 or better to win this match. The side doesn't have a dominant midfield, but it has much superior talent in both penalty areas, as shown by its shots and shots allowed numbers.
By The Numbers
- +9.8 — The post-shot over-performance of Bochum goalkeeper Manuel Riemann. He was incredible last season and is a promising player, but that level is not sustainable.
- 2 — Mainz's rank in ball recoveries in the Bundesliga, showing its work rate and intensity off the ball that made them so stout defensively a season ago.
Dabbundo's Pick: Mainz ML (+125 | +115 or better)
Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayer Leverkusen
| Dortmund Odds | +105 |
| Leverkusen Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-115 / -115) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Leverkusen and Dortmund are expected to be two of the main three challengers to Bayern Munich at the top of the table. The Black and Yellows have made a ton of summer additions, with two new center backs — Niklas Süle and Nico Schlotterbeck — joining them, along with midfielder Salih Özcan.
They might have lost Erling Haaland, but have attempted to replace him through Karim Adeyemi and Sebastien Haller. I do expect some growing pains for Dortmund early on under permanent manager Edin Terzić, and we could also see Jude Bellingham develop further in the heart of the midfield.
Both teams dramatically over-performed their finishing numbers last season, which had a lot of it had to do with opponents' goalkeepers not saving chances they should have saved against them. Regression is coming for both clubs, who are well overdue to play more low-scoring games when you consider their underlying numbers.
These teams combined to score 27 extra goals last season because of opposition goalies underperforming the expected shot-stopping numbers, which was by far the two highest marks in the league. It's not a fun bet to make given the fixture's history, but I will be holding my nose taking under 3.5 goals.
By The Numbers
- 34.9 — Percentage of Dortmund over-performance in attack when you compare xG to actual goals scored. Anything above 15% is not sustainable.
- 20.9 — Percentage of Dortmund over-performance in attack when you compare xG to actual goals scored.
Dabbundo's Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-115)
Stuttgart vs. RB Leipzig
| Stuttgart Odds | +320 |
| Leipzig Odds | -125 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated as Saturday evening via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Sunday's schedule features fellow top 4 hopeful RB Leipzig hitting the road to face an underrated Stuttgart side. It would be easy to look at the Red Bulls' superior talent and wonder why the moneyline price is relatively cheap, but the hosts are a major positive regression candidate this season.
Stuttgart wasn't as bad as its table position indicated last year and shouldn't have been anywhere near the relegation zone.
Now with a healthy Saša Kalajdžić for the beginning of the season, the attack should take a step forward toward what it was during the 2020-21 campaign when it scored 16 goals and finished in the top half of the table.
Leipzig's defense ran really well in the second half of the season, but there are still flaws in the way that it defends transitions and in space. I like the over on the total and don't mind laying a bit of juice.
By The Numbers
- 0.77 — Leipzig only conceded this amount of goals per match in the second half of the season, making it the only team in the league below one overall. However, the xG data suggested that was more variance and luck than elite performance.
- 1.61 — Stuttgart produced this number of xG per game in the second half of the campaign, but a finishing rut saw it convert that into just one goal per contest during that time span.
Dabbundo's Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-130)
