We've entered the final 10 matches of the Bundesliga season following last weekend's round of action across Germany. Bayern Munich had yet another mediocre performance in a 1-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt, while Wolfsburg and Borussia Mönchengladbach played to a thrilling 2-2 tie that featured VAR and red-card drama in the final minutes.
Freiburg, Hoffenheim, RB Leipzig and Union Berlin won their respective matches to stay in the heart of the race for fourth place. Those clubs have difficult matches this weekend as they face teams in the upper half of the table or teams good enough to be in that part of the standings.
Leipzig remains the favorite to join Bayern, Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League places, but a poor result against Freiburg could make its situation a bit perilous.
Bayern will be challenged yet again as it faces Leverkusen, while the rest of the top half has a bunch of matchups against each another. Hoffenheim embarks on a difficult road trip to Köln; Union visits struggling — but improving — Wolfsburg; and, Dortmund has a challenging away trip to Mainz.
Here are three best bets from matches on the Bundesliga slate.
Bundesliga Best Bets
Bayern Munich vs. Leverkusen Odds
| Bayern Odds | -275 |
| Leverkusen Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +575 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Bayern Munich has hit a rough patch in form that hasn't seen it be nearly as dominant as it was early in the season. The Bavarians did beat Leipzig, 3-2, at home, but conceded more than two expected goals. That win was followed by a 4-2 loss to newly promoted Bochum; a 1-1 draw with Salzburg in the Champions League; and, then a 1-0 victory at Frankfurt.
Bayern spent most of the first half of the season putting up xG numbers that were in a different stratosphere, but that has regressed considerably in the last month. There have been a few issues in the midfield due to setbacks to Leon Goretzka and left back with Alphonso Davies, but I think this is an ideal get-right spot for them.
The Bavarians have had a ton of success against Leverkusen in the past, in part because they're elite in attacking transitions. Leverkusen is typically happy to play an up-tempo, frenetic game with most of the Bundesliga sides, but that doesn't work when they step up in class and face Bayern.
Bayern won the first meeting, 5-1, at Leverkusen, beat them comfortably both matches last season and defeated them 4-2 in both games after the German restart post-COVID stoppage.
Leverkusen has ridden its luck in a big way and continues to be one of the most overrated teams in all of Europe. The side has finished chances at a rate 25% over its xG, which is unsustainable. And when Leverkusen does inevitably cool off, we'll realize its attack doesn't create nearly enough high-quality chances to compete with Bayern.
It's rare I bet on Bayern because it's often inflated and overvalued in the market, but this is a cheap price given recent form. I expect the Bavarians dominance of Leverkusen to continue here.
Dabbundo's Pick: Bayern Munich -1.5 (-110)
Hertha Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds
| Hertha Odds | +240 |
| Frankfurt Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-145 / +105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
An attempt to buy low on Hertha Berlin on the road at Freiburg failed last week, but I'm going back to the club once again, this time against Frankfurt. Hertha's performances at home haven't matched with the results it has managed.
The 6-1 defeat on home soil to Leipzig two weeks was mostly driven by a red card that came in a 1-1 game in the 62nd minute before the floodgates opened. Hertha's last two wins and draw against Arminia Bielefeld, Dortmund and Bochum did come at home, where the Berlin side has performed better.
It's hard to believe a club of its size is truly in the relegation battle, but this isn't even really a matter of positive regression. It has been every bit as bad as its table position suggests, even if zero wins in eight matches is quite harsh to them and represents a good buy-low spot.
This is also a play against Frankfurt, which had a solid effort in a home defeat to Bayern last week, but has been riding its luck quite a bit defensively. Frankfurt has conceded just 36 goals from 40 xG, despite having an average goalkeeper. Given how much they underperformed early on, it's been a pretty remarkable three-month stretch of teams not taking chances against it.
Hertha is the more desperate side here playing at home, where I think it will be able to get at least a point.
Dabbundo's Pick: Hertha Berlin +0.5 (-130)
Mainz vs. Dortmund Odds
| Mainz Odds | +275 |
| Dortmund Odds | -105 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Mainz saw its winning streak end last week with a 3-1 defeat at Union Berlin, but manager Bo Svensson's side returns home to take on Dortmund looking to pick off yet another top German side. Mainz recently defeated overrated Leverkusen on home soil a few weeks ago in a 3-2 thriller and now has real chance to beat another overrated when it hosts Dortmund.
If you take away all non-11-on-11 minutes in the German top flight, Dortmund and Mainz have comparable numbers. Yet, the results have been very different. Dortmund has a +0.58 xGDiff per 90 minutes, but is more than a full goal better than its foes. That would suggest regression is coming, especially for a defense allowing more than 1.5 xGA per 90 minutes away from home.
Mainz has underperformed with a +0.51 xG difference per 90 minutes, but it's around +0.3 goals/90 minutes against opponents. That doesn't seem like a lot, but it's the main reason Dortmund is second and Mainz is in ninth place. Svensson's side has the second-best defense in the entire Bundesliga and doesn't concede many big scoring chances.
Given that Dortmund's attack has really taken a step back this year — just fifth in xG per 90 minutes and sixth in big scoring chances created — the Mainz defense is the best unit in this game.
My projections make Dortmund a favorite, but at just +140 odds. I'd play Mainz to get at least a point at home, as Dortmund's inconsistent form continues.
Dabbundo's Pick: Mainz +0.5 (-115)
