Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Borussia Mönchengladbach & Wolfsburg (Feb. 26-27)

RB Leipzig's dominant win against Hertha Berlin has them tied for fourth with Freiburg and Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, but the underlying numbers suggest there won't be much of a top-four race in Germany anymore. Bayern Munich should comfortably win the title, with Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Leipzig likely joining them in next year's Champions League.

Most of the drama will come toward the bottom of the table.

Borussia Mönchengladbach suffered another embarrassing defeat last week at the hands of one regional rival Borussia Dortmund. After a competitive first half in terms of chances, Dortmund led 2-0 and Gladbach came close to battling back into the game before collapsing in the game's final 20 minutes in a 6-0 blowout defeat.

There are five teams either in or three points or fewer from the relegation places, with Gladbach and Wolfsburg facing off Saturday in a game that could decide which one should be in relegation trouble.

Here are my three favorite Bundesliga bets on the weekend card.

Bundesliga Best Bets

Gladbach vs. Wolfsburg

The biggest attacking under-performers square off at Borussia Park when Gladbach hosts Wolfsburg. The Foals gave up six last time out and the defense is averaging two goals allowed per game. Only Hertha Berlin and Greuther Fürth have yielded more goals in the German top flight than the Foals.

Gladbach's two main center backs, Nico Elvedi and Mattias Ginter, have been in terrible form. The fullbacks have gotten caught out of position quite a bit and the Foals have often been short-handed in the defensive midfield area. The loss to Denis Zakaria to Juventus will not help solve this either.

The defense has been a bit unlucky when you compare to xG allowed, but set pieces are also a major issue for the Foals. As bad as the defense has been, the attack has struggled based on surface level goal numbers, but the underlying numbers are fine. Gladbach is 11th in the league in goals, but sixth in xG, eighth in box entries, second in shots and seventh in big scoring chances.

I don't think the Foals' issues will be fixed, but the attack has positive regression coming in a big way. The same is true for Wolfsburg, which is an average attack based on shots and box entries and xG, but is just 16th in goals.

It's a great get-right spot for both attacks that should improve their conversion rates, meaning plenty of chances and goals are likely in this match.

Dabbundo's Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-100)

Freiburg vs. Hertha Berlin

Freiburg outran the regression monster for most of the first half of the season, and actually found itself in the top 4 race for a potential UCL place. The club is punching well above its weight to even be in the top half of the table and competing for European places to begin with, plus their underlying metrics suggest they continue to be due for some negative regression.

As -180 home favorites against an underperforming Hertha Berlin team, it's a great opportunity to sell high on Freiburg. In their last match against Augsburg, Freiburg actually had fewer shots than its opponent and was quite fortunate not to concede in the second half as Augsburg ramped up the pressure.

They've overperformed at both ends of the pitch, especially on defense. Freiburg has allowed just 26 goals this season with average goalkeeper play, but expected goals suggest they should be closer to 29 or 30 goals conceded. Those four goals don't seem like much, but it's worth multiple points that have Freiburg sitting in sixth this deep into the season.

The attack has run pretty hot, and the shot difference and ball-progression numbers make this to be about a 10th-placed team. The question is now, can they really get margin against Hertha, who is fighting off relegation?

Hertha has pretty poor underlying numbers and is in a full on relegation battle. They did win the xG battle in the last two meetings with Freiburg and recent history would suggest the club should regress positively. Maybe Hertha really is one of the three worst teams in the league and will get relegated, but history suggests they'll find a way to survive here.

Dabbundo's Pick: Hertha Berlin +1 (-110)

Union Berlin vs. Mainz

It's been a puzzling last few weeks for Union Berlin, which has zero goals and zero points in the last three games since selling Max Kruse to Wolfsburg in the January transfer window. Union lost, 2-0, to Augsburg on the road; dropped a home tilt, 3-0, to Dortmund; and, then lost at Arminia Bielefeld last weekend.

Meanwhile, Mainz is unbeaten in three matches against Hoffenheim, Freiburg and Leverkusen.

These teams are trending in opposite directions based on results, but the performances suggest Union has been a bit unlucky. Mainz features the best defense in the Bundesliga by goals allowed, but they've been a bit fortunate defensively to allow so few goals this season.

One area they've struggled is conceding chances through crosses, where Mainz ranks 11th in the league defensively. Union Berlin has completed more crosses into the penalty area than all but one Bundesliga team and that's a good way for them to break their goal scoring drought.

It's not that Union Berlin haven't been creating chances either. Union has produced 3.9 xG in the last three matches, so while they haven't scored, the goals will come.

Mainz has also conceded more than four xG in its last three games, so it's not that this defense is all of a sudden excellent and worthy of being atop the Bundesliga goals allowed sheet.

Buy low on Union at home and sell high on Mainz's recent form.

Dabbundo's Pick: Union Berlin — Draw No Bet (-110)

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