Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Arminia Bielefeld vs. Greuther Fürth

The Bundesliga returned from its winter break in dramatic fashion last weekend, as underdog Borussia Mönchengladbach stunned Bayern Munich — yet again –this past Friday in a 2-1 road victory as +750 underdogs.

Overall, the weekend continued with plenty of goals, highlighted RB Leipzig finding its winning form with a 4-1 victory against Mainz, which played most of that contest down a man.

And in the most thrilling affair of the weekend, Borussia Dortmund rallied from 2-0 halftime deficit with two goals in the final five minutes to stun Eintracht Frankfurt in a 3-2 win.

This weekend's slate is highlighted by upstart Gladbach, with the Foals playing host to Bayer Leverkuse. They'll look to get revenge from a 4-0 defeat they suffered in the second week of the campaign.

Bayern Munich travels to Köln, looking to bounce back from that shock defeat and get some players back at the same time. Arminia Bielefeld hosts Greuther Fürth in a relegation six-pointer, plus Union Berlin welcomes Hoffenheim to town in a game that could go a long way toward determining European places.

Bundesliga Best Bets

Gladbach vs. Leverkusen

This is hardly a good spot for Gladbach coming off one of its best performances of the season. The club has had mixed results following showdowns with Bayern Munich in the past.

When the Foals drew the Bavarians, 1-1, on opening day, they suffered a 4-0 defeat against Leverkusen next time out. They followed their 5-0 beatdown of Bayern in the DFB-Pokal Cup in October with a 2-1 road win at Bochum.

However, from an overrated versus underrated perspective, this is one of Germany's underrated sides in Gladbach, which will face one of its most overrated in Leverkusen.

From an expected-goals difference perspective over the course of the season, Leverkusen is +0.15 per 90 minutes and Gladbach is +0.16 in the metric. In other words, these teams are almost exactly the same, but the variance in finishing quality over the course of the season accounts for a major difference in table position.

The Foals sit in 12th place because they've scored just 24 goals from 31 xG so far. Only Wolfsburg has been less efficient in front of the opposition goal. The defense has been a nightmare for Gladbach, especially on set pieces and crosses into the six-yard box.

Fortunately for the Foals, Leverkusen is just 11th in creating big scoring chances and tends to take very few shots from inside the six-yard box. Patrik Schick has impressive goal-scoring numbers and scored again in the 2-2 draw with Union Berlin last week, but he's going to cool off at some point and won't sustain his current level of finishing.

Schick's 17 goals from 10.7 xG is carrying an otherwise mediocre attack that relies on a lot of shots from distance.

My projections make Gladbach at -125 on the Draw No Bet line at home. It's a classic example of the reality of teams not being reflected in the market, where Leverkusen is a road favorite despite middling defensive numbers away from home soil.

Pick: Gladbach — Draw No Bet (-105)

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Wolfsburg vs. Hertha Berlin

It's the ultimate buy-low spot on Wolfsburg, which has now lost eight consecutive matches across all competitions and six in a row in the German top flight. In those six league defeats, the Wolves have scored just three total goals and been blanked in four of six games.

Yet, while former manager Oliver Glasner and new manager Florian Kohfeldt have struggled to get the best out of the German side that began the year in the Champions League, the attacking performances have been better than the goal tally suggests. The club has produced just three goals from 7.8 xG in their last six games and scored just 17 league goals from 26.2 xG this season.

The table suggests Wolfsburg is in a legitimate relegation battle, but their xG numbers tell a very different story: they're perfectly average. However, short -term underperformance at both ends of the pitch has clouded the reality on this team and the market has swung too far against it.

Wolfsburg's defense still allows the fifth-fewest shots per 90 minutes and fifth lowest NPxG/90 in the Bundesliga. It's still pretty effective at pressing and ranks fourth in PPDA, while Hertha's attack is terrible in every statistic.

Hertha is bottom four in shots, xG per 90 minutes, passes per defensive action conceded and its defense allows a ton of crosses into the box. Wolfsburg should find some success, and with some attacking regression coming, is undervalued to get a home win.

Pick: Wolfsburg ML (-115 or better)

Arminia Bielefeld vs. Greuther Fürth

The third pick of the week comes from the bottom of the Bundesliga table, as Bielefeld is a -105 home favorite against Fürth, which has just six points this season. However, Fürth has tallied five points in its last four matches, beating Union Berlin, plus it secured draws with Stuttgart and Augsburg at home in its last two league contests.

The Bielefeld defense has been remarkably fortunate to not have conceded more goals this season. They've given up just 24 goals despite allowing 32 xGA and that 25% over-performance is near impossible to sustain given their below-average goalkeeper quality. Teams won't continue to finish this poorly from clear scoring chances as they have this year.

Arminia has stolen a number of results despite being badly outplayed and that was true in the reverse fixture, when Greuther Fürth won the battle of xG by a 2.3-0.6 margin, but settled for a 1-1 tie.

Fürth has only been marginally worse than Bielefeld (-0.92 xGDiff per 90 vs. -0.84 xGDiff per 90 for Bielefeld) over the course of the season. So, when you factor in the lessened home-field advantage without fans, there's no way Bielefeld should be priced as an odds-on favorite against anyone.

Hold your nose in this relegation six-pointer, as Arminia Bielefeld is actually overrated despite being in 17th place.

Pick: Greuther Fürth +0.5 (-120 or better)